In the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) survey, the expectation of market participants’ year -end consumer prices (CPI) increased from 27.05 percent to 28.30 percent.
Last week, the CBRT increased the end of 2025 years of inflation 3 points.
The CBRT announced the “Market Participants Survey” survey for February.
The results of the questionnaire are as follows;
“Participants’ expectation of Consumer Inflation (CPI) of the participants was 27.05 percent in the previous survey period, 28.30 percent in this survey period. The CPI expectation after 12 months was 25.38 percent in the previous survey period, 25 percent in this survey period 25 percent It was 26 percent of the CPI after 24 months.
In February 2025, when the participants’ probability forecasts for 12 months later, the CPI’s an average of 22.80 percent probability of 21.00 – 23.99 percent, 41.11 percent probability of 24.00 – 26.99 percent , 21.46 percent probably is predicted to increase between 27.00 – 29.99 percent.
According to the assessment based on point estimates (2) in the same survey period, 14.52 percent of the participants are in the range of 21.00 – 23.99 percent, and 48.39 percent of the expectations of 24.00 – 26.99 percent of their expectations It is observed that 19.35 percent of their expectations are between 27.00 – 29.99 percent.
In February 2025, when the participants’ probability forecasts for 24 months after the polls were evaluated, the CPI’s average is 24.02 percent probably in the range of 13.00 – 15.99 percent, 36.87 percent probability of 16.00 – 18.99 percent , 24.28 percent probability is predicted to increase between 19.00 – 21.99 percent.
According to the assessment based on point estimates (2) in the same survey period, when the expectations of CPI inflation after 24 months were evaluated, 26.79 percent of the participants are in the range of 13.00 – 15.99 percent of their expectations
It is observed that 33.93 of their expectations are in the range of 16.00 – 18.99, and 28.57 percent of their expectations are between 19.00 – 21.99 percent.
The participants’ current monthly-end interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 45.00 percent in the previous survey period, while 44.79 percent in this survey period. The CBRT’s one -week repo tender interest rate was 40.91 percent in the previous survey period, while 40.00 percent in the survey period.
The expectation of the participants’ current year -end exchange rate (US dollar/TL) was 43.03 TL in the previous survey period, while this survey period was 42,89 TL. After 12 months, the exchange rate expectation was 43,81 TL in the previous survey period, while in this survey period was 43.96 TL.
While the participants’ growth expectation of GDP 2025 was 3.1 percent in the previous survey period, it was 3.0 percent in this survey period. GDP 2026 growth expectation was 3.9 percent in this survey period, as in the previous survey period. “
