Crisis with Iran is at the door! Could there be refugee sabotage against Turkey?

While there was concern about the risk of a major war in the Middle East, remarkable statements came from the Iranian administration regarding the situation of refugees in the country. According to official data, there are more than 5 million refugees in Iran, mostly Afghans, while 2 million refugees; It was announced that he would be deported by March 2025. Experts; While they pointed out that there may be great activity on the Iran-Türkiye border in the next year, they stated that border measures should be increased by starting diplomatic initiatives now. On the other hand, it was also pointed out that the statements coming from Iran were a means of geopolitical pressure, and a warning was made that there would be a crisis if the refugees were pushed to Turkey.

Stating that the number of Afghan refugees in Turkey is over 500 thousand, Prof. Dr. Erdoğan says, “It is not possible to say that the process is managed well. Although many precautions have been taken recently, infiltrations still continue.”

FOREIGN POLICY TOOL

150 THOUSAND DEPORT IS NOT ENOUGH

Prof. also pointed out that if the number of possible refugee influx from Iran is too high, an uncontrollable situation will occur. Dr. Erdoğan listed the following warnings: “We need to separate two issues in Turkey. The first is how to prevent entry to Turkey, and the second is how to send back refugees in Turkey. We need to cooperate with neighboring countries on the first issue. However, the other expectation in the society is that refugees in Turkey will be sent back.” issue of repatriation. Türkiye deported 150 thousand refugees last year. However, considering the total number, sending 150 thousand people is not enough.”

Crisis with Iran is at the door! Could there be refugee sabotage against Turkey? - Picture: 2 — Refugees who are found to have entered the country illegally are taken to repatriation centers and are deported if a process such as applying for international protection is not initiated.

GEOPOLITICAL PRESSURE TOOL

Terrorism and Security Expert Abdullah Ağar stated that the statements made by Iran could be a tool of geopolitical pressure and said: “Iranian officials are making statements about sending irregular immigrants to their own country. Is the refugee issue really a burden that Iran has difficulty in carrying, or is it a geopolitical issue?” Is it a tool of oppression? We must first seek the answer to this question. “If there is public pressure against refugees in Iran, the state administration should resolve the issue with Afghanistan and Pakistan.”

A CRISIS MAY OCCUR

Ağar stated, “There is a huge crisis of trust between Türkiye and Iran,” and added, “The accumulation of millions of refugees in Iran on the Turkish border will deepen the crisis. Relations between the two countries reach a very difficult point. If Iran deliberately tries to send refugees to Turkey, this would be equivalent to using the immigration card as a weapon. Therefore, there will be a crisis in Türkiye-Iran relations.“ he said.

Crisis with Iran is at the door! Could there be refugee sabotage against Turkey? - Picture: 3 — While Turkish soldiers continue to patrol the borders day and night, the wall on the Iranian border continues to be enlarged.

WE TOOK SERIOUS MEASURES

Uluç Özülker (Retired Ambassador)

“While Iran has received all the refugees coming to it via Afghanistan so far, it has directed a significant portion of them to Turkey. There are enough refugees coming to Turkey. To date, security measures have been taken at our borders by spending significant amounts of money. However, it is not possible to prevent 100 percent illegal crossings. “I think these issues have come to the table with our president and the new president of Iran.”

(email protected)