The longer the war lasts and the more politically consequential it becomes for Trump, the greater the gap between him and Netanyahu will inevitably grow. This is probably based on two different ideas about a victory against Iran. Israel’s primary goal is to destroy the Iranian regime, which has at least so far been able to hold on to power. Many Israeli strategists are convinced that a surviving regime would sooner or later rebuild its missile, drone and nuclear programs.
Trump, on the other hand, seems to have a much more pragmatic scenario in mind. Analysts like former Biden adviser on the National Security Council Thomas Wright argue: The president may prefer a solution in which a new strongman within the system takes power, establishes stability and then strikes a deal with Washington – perhaps even with American access to the Iranian energy sector. This scenario would at least be similar to what happened in Venezuela.
The short version of the emerging conflict between the two leaders: Israel wants regime change; Trump, on the other hand, could also be content with influence. These goals are difficult to reconcile. If Israel continues to try to completely eliminate those in power in Tehran while Washington heads for a quick diplomatic end, tensions are bound to arise.
But the question is also: Would the son of the slain previous leader Ali Khamenei be ready for a deal with Donald Trump? Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced Monday that they would be the ones to decide when the war ends. Iran is ready for a long war with the United States and only economic pressure can end it, Kamal Kharazi, foreign policy adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader, said in a CNN interview. He added that he currently sees no scope for diplomacy.
In fact, the chances of successfully withdrawing from this war are not very promising for the American president. But Trump needs a quick end. Because the important midterm elections in November are getting closer and closer. He is therefore unlikely to be willing to continue following Netanyahu’s path. So are Trump and Netanyahu really still on the same side of this war?
In any case, the relationship between the two was always more complex than the public presentation suggested.
