Looking back and looking forward at the same time: Preventive panic, for example because of Donald Trump, is understandable, but what good does it do? Here and there there is reason for a little optimism.
What does the new year bring? Under the Christmas tree, on a walk in the winter sunshine, in the family circle, this question is tossed back and forth every year. Probably even more intense this time, even more perplexed than usual. It’s not easy to remain confident when you look around your own country and the world. But what is the alternative?
Preventative panic is obvious, yes. Donald Trump will be in the White House in three weeks and can do whatever he wants. Rarely has a president been so powerful. A few weeks later, Germany will vote in parliament, which will elect the chancellor, who will probably be called Friedrich Merz. Not young either, not fresh either, also expected with trepidation. Then the war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East, which consists of multiple wars.
Gerhard Spörl has always been interested in global political events and changes, which of course also affect Germany’s role in the international structure. He worked in leading positions in “Zeit” and “Spiegel”, was a correspondent in the USA at times and now writes books, preferably on historical topics.
Fortunately, history rarely goes downhill all the time. There are also periods of calm and happy events sprinkled in. Pro-Europeans rule again in Poland. In Great Britain, pragmatic social democrats are at the helm after dilettante noble conservatives.
Even in the Middle East, despite all the madness, there are notable developments that give cause for a certain optimism. The Assad dynasty is a thing of the past, who would have thought that? The victorious rebels aim to create a calm impression. If things go well, they stick to it permanently.
The events in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza have weakened Iran. The export of the Shiite revolution has stopped for now, who would complain about that? Israel is in the process of freeing itself from the axis of resistance. But what does it make of it? Can Benjamin Netanyahu do more than just wage war? Who will stop the spiral of violence?
The political hallmark of the time is disruption. Hamas and Hezbollah were among those responsible for this. Vladimir Putin is joining in, in Ukraine, in Syria, with his hybrid wars in Europe. China is past disruption; This was achieved by Xi Jinping, who ended the regular exchange of leadership in his favor.
Disruption as a concept is still young. He means interrupting a development, destroying what exists. This principle has always been inherent in capitalism. It destroys old business models and technologies and replaces them with new ones, which also changes the state and society. But the right-wing turnaround that is emerging in many countries focuses on strong individuals who are fundamentally changing the course of things.
In the West, it is Donald Trump who has made disruption the essence of his politics. I destroy what destroys us is his message. Because he means what he says, he has two very wealthy men – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – dismantling the Washington bureaucracy with the aim of installing Trump loyalists there. He’s concerned with the “deep state,” whatever that may be. He doesn’t trust anyone who isn’t hand-picked by him, especially not faceless institutions.
What’s interesting is that the new authoritarianism that Trump embodies is supported by a technological elite that has embarked on a crusade. Elon Musk is the outstanding symbol of this. In his missionary conservatism, he recommends that Germany follow America’s lead and bring the AfD into government.
Trump and Musk, a truly infernal duo, but also two global egos for whom this world is too small. A little bet on the side: the symbiosis between the two will not survive this year, 2025. An over-president like Trump does not tolerate an over-president next to him.
How much disruption Donald Trump will cause is the big question of the coming year. When it comes to foreign policy, he may remain unpredictable, perhaps even for himself. If you understand him correctly, he wants to get the Nobel Peace Prize and, as he is, he will do everything in his power to get it, like Barack Obama before him. Bringing peace to the world gives him this opportunity, for example in Ukraine.
