The confidence indicator in the Turkish economy has risen above the critical threshold again. According to TÜİK, the economic confidence index increased from 99.8 in July to 100.6 in August. When the index rises above 100, it means that pessimism in the general outlook is replaced by optimism, albeit limited. However, the picture is not the same in all sectors. While consumer and real sector confidence increased, there was a decline in the service, retail and construction sectors.
WILL THERE BE AN INTEREST REDUCTION?
After the confidence data, the focus of the markets is the upcoming meetings of the Central Bank. JPMorgan expects the policy rate to be reduced by 100 basis points at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on October 22. The bank’s expectation for December is a new reduction of 100 basis points. If the forecast comes true, a total interest rate reduction of 200 basis points will be made in the remaining part of the year and the policy rate will drop to 35 percent. JPMorgan bases its expectation on the slowdown in the underlying trend of inflation.
THERE WAS PRESSURE UNDER
While interest rate expectations were monitored in Türkiye, the prominent headline in global markets was US bond yields. The increase in the US 10-year bond interest rate above 5 percent has put pressure on gold, which does not bear interest. The rise in bond yields was accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar. According to experts, the strengthening of the dollar makes gold priced in dollars more expensive for investors using other currencies.
PREDICTIONS HAVE CHANGED
On the other hand, the change in the global interest rate outlook is also reflected in the forecasts of major investment banks. Goldman Sachs lowered its target for the end of 2026 for an ounce of gold from 4 thousand 900 dollars to 4 thousand 650 dollars; On the other hand, the bank maintained its forecast of $ 5,400 for the end of 2027. On the gold side, central banks’ purchases are also closely monitored. CIt was reported that China imported over 1,000 tons of gold in the first eight months of 2026 and spent approximately 159 billion dollars for these purchases. Economics and Economics Expert-Analyst Barlas Yurtsever brought the following predictions for the coming period to the agenda: “In Türkiye, the expectation of a total reduction of 200 basis points on the interest side in the remaining part of the year stands out. If the policy rate decreases to 35 percent, we may also see a downward movement in loan and deposit interest rates. However, the increase in economic confidence to 100.6 makes the question of whether domestic demand will accelerate again or not important.”
“QUITLY SMALL FIGURES!”
Drawing attention to the picture of capital flow, Yurtsever also said, “The long-term US share assets recorded through Turkey reached 1.393 billion dollars at the end of July 2026. Net purchases of approximately 48 million dollars were made in the last 12 months. In July, there were net sales of 9 million dollars. These figures show that there is interest in US stocks from Türkiye, but they are quite small compared to the global flow of $ 941.9 billion.” he shared the information.
