Drought, extreme heat and harsh weather events no longer only affect the production in the field, but also directly affect the kitchen. New research reveals that the climate crisis permanently raises food prices by suppressing agricultural production and that new increases in global food commodity prices are at the door. Price increases reaching 40 percent in tomatoes, 80 percent in vegetables and 280 percent in cocoa reveal the extent of the climate-related food crisis. According to experts, the frequency of extreme weather events may make basic products on the table even more expensive in the coming period.
TOMATOES INCREASED BY 40 PERCENT
A new study published by Zero Carbon Analytics examined the impact of extreme weather events on food prices. In the research, 12 new price shocks experienced in the 2024-2026 period were examined. A total of 28 examples evaluated together with previous cases showed that climate-related production losses are now directly reflected on market shelves. Accordingly, after the heat wave that affected France in the summer of 2026, there was an increase between 16 percent and 32 percent in the prices of corn, pumpkin, tomatoes and green beans. After the harsh cold weather in the USA in January 2026, tomato prices increased by 40 percent.
280 PERCENT SHOCK IN COCOA
One of the sharpest increases was seen in cocoa. After the heat wave in Ivory Coast and Ghana in February 2024, cocoa prices increased by 280 percent. After the 2023 drought in Brazil, Arabica coffee prices increased by 55 percent. While there was a 40 percent increase in general food prices after the drought in Ethiopia, the increase in vegetable prices after the drought in 2022 in the USA reached 80 percent.
RISK OF 49 MILLION PEOPLE
According to experts, the real danger goes beyond price increases. According to the World Food Programme’s forecasts, the effects of El Niño could aggravate the food crisis, especially in Central America and Southern Africa. It is predicted that at least 49 million more people may be at risk of acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
NEW INCREASE WAVE
According to calculations by Goldman Sachs experts, global food commodity prices may rise up to 15.8 percent. It is stated that this impact may put pressure on household budgets until the end of 2028. If this scenario occurs, climate-related production losses will directly affect not only developing countries but also consumers in the world’s major economies.
GREAT LOSS IN AGRICULTURE
Long-term data also show that the situation is not temporary. According to calculations, climate change has reduced global agricultural productivity growth by 21 percent since 1961. In hot regions such as Latin America and Africa, the loss is estimated to be between 26 percent and 34 percent.
CAN ADD 3 POINTS
Barcelona Supercomputing Center Researcher Dr. According to Maximilian Kotz’s study with the European Central Bank, climate change could add 3.2 percentage points to annual food inflation and 1.2 percentage points to general inflation by 2035. This picture shows that the climate crisis is no longer just an environmental problem; It reveals that it directly turns into a matter of cost of living, inflation and purchasing power. The lead author of the Zero Carbon Analytics analysis, Dr. Joanne Bentley-McKune also points out that climate-related price pressure is not temporary. According to Bentley-McKune, when losses in production caused by extreme weather events are combined with fossil fuel addiction, a permanent risk of “climate inflation” emerges worldwide.
PRICE PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
Water Policy Association President Dursun Yıldız points out that the impact of the climate crisis on food prices will become more evident in the coming years. According to Yıldız, drought and deterioration in the rainfall regime do not only reduce agricultural production; It increases irrigation costs, changes cropping patterns and makes food supplies more fragile. Emphasizing that water is one of the most critical inputs in agricultural production, Yıldız states that the decrease in water resources may increase price pressure, especially in grain, vegetable and fruit production. Yıldız states that climate change should no longer be evaluated only as an environmental problem, but directly under the heading of food security and cost of living.
