Approximately 20 million civil servants and retirees have their eyes set on the first salary increase of 2027. Different predictions regarding the end-2026 inflation coming from the Central Bank, Market Participants Survey, AA Finance and Financial Institutions Association brought up four different scenarios regarding the January hike.
The salary increase of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be determined according to the 6-month inflation that will occur in the second half of 2026. For retired civil servants and civil servants, a 6-month inflation difference exceeding 7 percent will be added to the collective bargaining increase.
According to calculations, depending on the course of year-end inflation, the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees may vary between 8.70 percent and 10.80 percent. It is predicted that the total increase for civil servants and retired civil servants may be between 6.67 percent and 8.73 percent.
The first scenario is based on the Central Bank’s 2026 year-end CPI forecast being realized as 28 percent.
If this prediction comes true, 6-month inflation in the second half of 2026 is expected to be 8.70 percent. Thus, the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be 8.70 percent. It is calculated that the total increase for civil servants and civil servant retirees will reach 6.67 percent with the inflation difference of 1.59 percent.
In this scenario, the lowest civil servant salary can increase from 70 thousand 224 TL to 74 thousand 908 TL, and the lowest civil servant pension can increase from 31 thousand 527 TL to 33 thousand 630 TL. The base salary, which is 23 thousand 552 TL in SSK and Bağ-Kur, is expected to increase to 25 thousand 601 TL.
The second calculation is based on the 2026 year-end inflation expectation of 29.43 percent in the Central Bank’s Market Participants Survey.
If this prediction comes true, inflation in the second 6 months will be 9.91 percent. Accordingly, the salaries of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be increased by 9.91 percent.
