This could involve territorial cessions – such a move would undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and shift the geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe, where nations like Poland and the Baltic states see Russia as an existential threat. Putin’s example could set a precedent: seizing land by force would be worth it in the end. With Trump’s new presidency, Europe and Germany in particular are at a crossroads. And it is completely unclear what Joe Biden can achieve with his meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
It’s not just the next president who is critical of US involvement in Ukraine. Trump’s future Vice President JD Vance has also openly spoken out against supporting Ukraine on several occasions and during the election campaign called for all US aid to be stopped immediately. He had advocated for a peace plan more in line with Putin’s demands, including Ukraine’s cession of Russian-occupied territories and a commitment to neutrality. “I have to be honest, I don’t really care what happens one way or another with Ukraine,” Vance said in February 2022.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly warned that any peace agreement without Ukraine’s participation would be illegitimate. Given the unpredictability of Donald Trump and his deal-based foreign policy approach, Ukraine fears a kind of dictated peace from Washington and Moscow that ignores the interests of Ukraine and Europe.
In addition, there will be an extremely important vote on the future majority leader in the US Senate this Wednesday in Washington. The fight there is a showdown between Trump, his supporters and other Republican senators. In view of Donald Trump’s brilliant election victory, the second important chamber of parliament is seen as the last bastion in which Republicans sit who are particularly critical of his ideas on security and foreign policy. So far, cross-party majorities of Democrats and Republicans have still been found to continue supporting Ukraine. A possible withdrawal from NATO, which Trump may have favored, could at least be slowed down here.
However, the long-time, influential Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is stepping down. Now Senators John Cornyn, John Thune and Rick Scott are running against each other as the leading candidates. Trump’s approach to foreign policy could affect the dynamics in the Senate, especially if Florida Sen. Rick Scott wins the election. In the past, he and other Republicans had voted against extensive aid packages for Ukraine. If the close Trump ally asserts himself as majority leader, it could become much more difficult for Ukraine to secure military and economic support from the USA.
Such a change in the Senate could also affect NATO and strain relations between the US and the EU. Because the current Western and especially European security architecture would be at stake.
