Global markets started the week in a rally mood with the agreement reached between the USA and Iran.
Developments regarding the US/Israel-Iran War and technology companies continue to be the focus of global markets.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that an agreement was reached between the USA and Iran.
US President Donald Trump also announced that the peace agreement with Iran has been completed, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and the US naval blockade will be lifted immediately.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Garibabadi also confirmed that an agreement was reached with the USA and stated that the memorandum of understanding would be signed in Switzerland on June 19.
Predictions that the peace agreement reached between the USA and Iran will alleviate global inflation pressures and reduce the need for high interest rates support risk appetite in global markets.
While this development is expected to provide relief for central banks that will announce interest rate decisions this week, it is estimated that concerns about inflationary pressures arising from energy prices may ease, which may alleviate the pressure on tightening monetary policies to some extent.
The agreement is expected to alleviate energy supply problems.
Despite the positive news flow, it is anticipated that investors may display a cautious attitude until an agreement is signed between the parties.
Shipping and insurance companies in particular will want to make sure the deal is valid, analysts said.
On the other hand, this week, the markets’ eyes will be on the monetary policy decisions that will come out of the first interest rate decision meeting chaired by the new US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Kevin Warsh. While it is certain that the bank will keep the interest rate constant, attention will be paid to Warsh’s tone in his first words of guidance.
While predictions that the Fed will raise interest rates once by the end of the year remain on the table due to strong employment data and rising inflation, predictions that the Fed will increase interest rates have weakened somewhat with the positive news flow regarding geopolitical developments.
Analysts stated that signals regarding future policies will be sought in the monetary policy text and Warsh’s statements after the meeting, and that volatility in the markets may increase with the signals to be received.
It is estimated that the demand for the dollar may increase if Warsh makes “hawkish” statements.
According to the pricing in the money markets, it is predicted that the bank will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at the December meeting with a 73 percent probability.
On the macroeconomic data side, the consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan in the USA exceeded expectations, rising to 48.9 in June.
Although consumers’ short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.8 percent to 4.6 percent in June, they remained above the level seen before the start of the Iran war.
Industrial production data to be announced this week in the USA is also expected to provide investors with a perspective on the course of the economy.
With these developments, the barrel price of Brent oil, which reached its lowest level in 3 months at $ 82.50, is at $ 82.7, 3.9 percent below the previous close.
While the selling pressure in the bond market decreased with the hopes that oil prices could now fall sustainably and reduce inflationary pressures, the US 10-year bond rate decreased by 6 basis points to 4.43 percent.
While the decline in bond interest rates and the general improvement in risk perception pull the dollar down, the dollar index is at 99.5 with a decrease of 0.3 percent.
With these developments, an ounce of gold is traded at 4 thousand 328.7 dollars, with an increase of 2.8 percent.
The New York stock market was positive on Friday with the IPO of SpaceX.
Shares of Elon Musk’s space company SpaceX, which was offered to the public at $135 per share, started trading at $150 on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The company’s shares, which climbed to $176.52 during the day, closed the day at $160.95, with an increase of 19.2 percent.
SpaceX’s public offering is considered an important development for the technology and artificial intelligence sector.
The decline in the shares of other companies in the space industry attracted attention. Shares of EchoStar Corp and Rocket Lab lost approximately 11 percent, shares of Redwire fell 11.5 percent and shares of AST SpaceMobile lost 15.5 percent.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index gained 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.31 percent on Friday. Index futures contracts in the USA also started the day positively.
A positive trend was also observed in European stock markets on Friday.
Macroeconomic data announced in Germany and the UK on Friday stood out in the region.
While the British economy contracted by 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in April, it grew by 0.7 percent in the three-month period covering February-April. Thus, the British economy contracted in April for the first time since August 2025.
The effects of the US/Israel-Iran War began to be seen in the British economy. Concerns remain that the energy shock could further impact UK households and businesses if tensions in the Middle East continue.
In Germany, the consumer price index for May decreased by 0.2 percent monthly and increased by 2.6 percent annually, meeting expectations. Although the CPI in Germany decreased on a monthly basis, the increase in the annual CPI reveals that the inflation pressure resulting from energy costs continues.
On the other hand, the interest rate decision of the Bank of England (BoE) will be followed in Europe this week. Although the bank is expected to keep the policy rate constant this week, it is estimated that it may increase interest rates for the rest of the year if geopolitical tensions continue.
With these developments, the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 1.66 percent, the CAC 40 index in France gained 1.83 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 1.97 percent and the FTSE 100 index in the UK gained 1.63 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day positively.
A positive trend is observed in Asian stock markets on the first trading day of the week as geopolitical tensions decrease.
While the expectations that oil prices will decline are expected to provide a great advantage for Japan, which is an energy importer, these expectations lead to sharp increases in the Japanese stock market.
SpaceX’s public offering also had a positive impact on the stock performance of technology companies in Asia.
On the other hand, tomorrow’s interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stands out as the most important agenda item in Asian markets.
The BoJ had indicated that it might increase the policy rate in June in the face of increasing inflation pressures, especially due to the US/Israel-Iran war.
Thus, the bank is expected to raise the policy rate to 1 percent for the first time since 1995. Analysts said that policy makers may aim to reduce the volatility in the country’s bond market by increasing interest rates.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 4.9 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 5.3 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.9 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong increased by 0.5 percent.
Nikkei 225 index reached a record level with 69,682.23 points.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-oriented trend on Friday, completed the day at 13,938.48 points, gaining 1.42 percent in value.
The June futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 0.24 percent in the evening session on Friday compared to the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL completed Friday at 46.2680 with a 0.2 percent increase, it is traded at 46.2740 at the opening of the interbank market today, just above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the data agenda will be followed today, especially industrial production in the country and industrial production abroad in the USA and the Eurozone, and noted that technically, 14,000 and 14,100 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance, and 13,800 and 13,700 points are support.
