Following the unemployment figures announced the other day, all eyes turned to the unemployment and economic picture that will emerge at the end of the year. According to the latest data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the unemployment rate in Turkey increased by 0.7 percentage points to 9.2 percent. While the number of unemployed people was recorded as 3 million 305 thousand people, the number of unemployed people aged 15 and over increased by 234 thousand people compared to the previous month, reaching 3 million 305 thousand people. While experts are making alarming warnings about the year-end unemployment rates, another negative picture is the increase in the amount of bad checks. In the first 6 months of the year, the amount of commercial cards used increased by 97 percent to 1.6 trillion TL, the amount of checks presented increased by 85 percent to 1.4 trillion TL, and the amount of bad checks increased by 254 percent to 68 billion TL.
HSBC’S ESTIMATE IS 36 TL
While the latest data from the market and the economy show that the fluctuating trend continues, HSBC predicted that the US dollar will be 36 TL and the Euro will be 37.8 TL by the end of 2024. While the Euro forecast is considered quite optimistic, the view that the Dollar exchange rate will not exceed 36 TL is dominant. According to analysts,Another confusing picture in the economy stems from seasonal tourism revenues. While the current account had a surplus of $407 million in June due to the decrease in gold and energy imports, the 6-month current account deficit decreased by 55 percent to $16.5 billion, and the 12-month deficit narrowed by 53.6 percent to $24.8 billion.
FED WILL DEFINITELY DROP
On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US increased by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis in July, in line with market expectations. According to data released in the US on Tuesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1 percent on a monthly basis and 2.2 percent on an annual basis in July, below expectations. According to this data flow, it is almost certain that the FED will cut interest rates in September.
WHY DID SALES INCREASE?
On the other hand, housing sales in Turkey increased by 16 percent in July compared to the same month of the previous year, exceeding 127 thousand. The share of bank loan sales, which decreased by 21 percent compared to the previous year, remained at its low level of recent months at 9 percent. Drawing attention to the fact that houses are purchased with cash, promissory notes and vehicle exchange, Analysts interpreted the reason for the movement in the market as ‘ensuring the cash flow of new housing producers’.
INCREASE TO 11 PERCENT
“WE HAVE A CASH PROBLEM”
Marketing and Business Expert Volkan Soykan said, “International direct investment inflows to Turkey decreased by 5 percent in the first 6 months of this year compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 4.7 billion dollars. TL sterilization creates cash flow problems in the market. he said.
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