Last year, increasing geopolitical risks and continuing uncertainties in the global economy increased the demand for gold, which is a safe haven asset. In 2025, the steps taken by important central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are expected to have an impact on the course of gold.
The ounce price of gold, which reached its historical peak of 2 thousand 790 dollars in 2024, increased by 27.2 percent, recording the highest return in 14 years and reaching the highest annual closing of all time with 2 thousand 623 dollars.
According to the report published by the World Gold Council, purchases by central banks in 2024 balanced the slowdown in consumer demand.
The report stated that investors in the Asian region have always been active in gold, and that declining returns and the weakening dollar index in the third quarter also attracted investors in other regions to gold.
The report pointed out the role of gold as a protection tool against increasing market fluctuations and geopolitical risks, and this role was also emphasized in its performance in 2024.
Making evaluations on the subject, HSBC Portfolio Chief Economist İbrahim Aksoy and Investment Finance Chief Economist Erol Gürcan shared their opinions about the 2025 vision of gold.
Stating that the decline in core inflation in the USA has been replaced by a relatively horizontal course in recent months, Aksoy noted that the Fed’s prediction of less interest rate reduction for 2025 in its December projections creates a downside risk for ounce gold.
Aksoy stated that although there is a possibility that inflation in the USA may remain relatively high in 2025, it may not have a significant upward effect on ounce gold with the expectation that it will remain under control. He underlined that he could come to the plan.
Stating that if higher customs duties are imposed on China by the USA, China may take a step to increase the gold holdings in its reserves in response, Aksoy stated that such a situation may have a positive impact on the price of ounce gold.
Referring to geopolitical risks, Aksoy said, “A situation in which the war between Russia and Ukraine ends and geopolitical risks decrease for the next year may have a negative impact on the ounce gold price. High geopolitical risks may continue to support the ounce gold price.” he commented.
