The Turkish economy entered 2026 with a multi-layered picture. Data ranging from production to financial indicators, from foreign trade to expectation surveys; It simultaneously signals both slowdown and risk accumulation. The contraction in logistics flows, the high difference in the forward exchange rate market, the historical peak in global debt and the increasing foreign exchange deficit of the real sector; It points to a simultaneous test in different layers of the economy. The fact that the loss rate in foreign trade transportation exceeds 17 percent in exports and 11 percent in imports does not only mean a decline in logistics volume. This picture points to a weakening in the first link of the production chain. In particular, the decline in imports of intermediate goods and raw materials is a leading indicator for an economy like Türkiye, whose production structure is indexed to imported inputs.
WILL THE LOSS OF MOMENTUM CONTINUE?
While the decline in imports of intermediate goods and raw materials suggests that the current production pace is slowing down; It also shows that caution is increasing in forward-looking order and capacity planning. The higher rate of loss in exports reveals that the recovery on the foreign demand front is limited. Thus, both domestic production dynamics and foreign market conditions are under pressure at the same time. From the perspective of industrial production, the contraction in raw material input signals that the loss of momentum may continue in the coming months.
GLOBAL RECORD!
Analysts underline that Türkiye’s situation is not independent of global financial conditions. The latest data reflected from the International Finance Institute’s data attracts attention. According to the latest data, the global debt stock increased by 29 trillion dollars and reached an all-time high of 348.3 trillion dollars. The fact that a significant part of the debt increase is public-related shows that the global financial system is increasingly based on the “rolling debt” system. Analysts say that the increase in global debt does not only increase the size of the balance sheet; He states that it makes the world economy more sensitive to changes in interest rates and risk appetite.
LIMITED EXCHANGE INCREASE?
The projections of some international institutions point to a moderate course. While it is predicted that the policy rate may decrease to 31 percent with gradual interest rate reductions throughout the year; An estimate of 46.30 USD/TL for the end of June and 50.70 USD/TL for the end of December is shared. This projection reveals a more limited exchange rate increase expectation compared to the 30.7 percent difference in the forward market.
WILL INFLATION FALL?
Domestic inflation data is also monitored carefully. Market expectation for February is 2.81 percent. While Web-CPI, which is followed as a leading indicator, was 3.19 percent, the latest data is interpreted as a sign that official inflation may reach around 3 percent. According to the Central Bank’s Sectoral Inflation Expectations Report While the real sector’s 12-month inflation expectation decreased from 32.90 percent to 32 percent; The expectation of market participants decreased from 22.20 percent to 22.10 percent. Household expectations remained constant at 48.81 percent.
THE BALANCE HAS BEEN DISTURBED
Another prominent topic in terms of financial stability is the net foreign exchange position of the real sector. The deficit, which was minus 70 billion dollars in 2023, increased to minus 148 billion dollars in 2024. It reached minus 185 billion dollars in June 2025 and minus 189 billion dollars in December 2025. Signs of contraction in foreign trade, historical peak in global debt, high difference in the forward exchange rate market, increasing real sector foreign exchange deficit and difficulties in the inflation path; It reveals the search for a multi-layered balance in the economy.
PURCHASING POWER IS DECREASING
Corporate Finance Expert Gülsev Duran, while drawing attention to the latest data published by ITOSAM, made the following warnings on the agenda: “It seems that the rigidity in services inflation continues. Especially the increases in rent, transportation and basic service items continue to create direct pressure on fixed-income segments. The determining factor in the current economic conjuncture is not nominal salary increases, but whether these increases maintain real purchasing power. “Even if inflation enters the downward path, those who live on a salary will have difficulty as long as the cost pressure on rent and basic service items continues.”
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