Vote of no confidence plunges France into uncertainty

Big success for Le Pen

France’s government falls – now what?

France needs a new cabinet after the fall of the government. At the same time, there are pressing problems in the country. Who can solve them?

The fall of the government in Paris is pushing the country into a political crisis that could also have economic consequences for Germany’s important EU partner. In a rare solidarity, Marine Le Pen’s left-wing alliance and right-wing nationalists in the National Assembly expressed no confidence in the center-right government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier. However, the hated blocs do not have a common plan for how France should be governed in the future – and all political camps lack the necessary majority to govern alone. What happens next:

The vote of no confidence brought down the government, but it does not change Emmanuel Macron’s presidency. And he was also unimpressed by the expected outcome: The head of state has always emphasized that he wants to remain in office until the end of his electoral term in 2027 – regardless of the fall of the government or not. However, France’s left and the right-wing nationalists are increasingly calling for an early presidential election and are accusing Macron of having provoked the difficult political situation himself with the dissolution of parliament and the early election last summer.

Nope. The government must now submit its resignation. However, Macron will probably ask Prime Minister Barnier to remain in office as acting manager for the time being. According to media reports, Macron wants to appoint a new prime minister very quickly, possibly within a few days. He would then put together a new cabinet. It is said that by acting quickly, Macron also wants to stifle calls for an early presidential election.

No. After the early elections in the summer, another parliamentary election in France is not possible until July 2025. It is completely unclear whether the future government will only take office as a stopgap until new elections.

That is unclear. None of the political camps has a majority in parliament capable of governing and efforts to form a coalition or cooperation have so far failed. This difficult starting point will not change for a new government. Macron had sent Barnier, who was a former EU Brexit negotiator, into the race as prime minister in the hope that he would initiate a dialogue between the camps. It remains to be seen whether a future prime minister will demonstrate more skill.

The political crisis in which France has found itself since new parliamentary elections were called in early summer is worsening. In addition to the standstill when it comes to new laws and reforms, there is the problem of the austerity budget for 2025, which has not yet been passed, which was the trigger for the motions of no confidence against Barnier’s government. If necessary, the current year’s budget will initially continue to apply – with the threat of tax increases for numerous people and the lack of planned relief.

The financial markets could lose confidence in France in view of the ongoing crisis and the unresolved budget issue, and the country’s ranking could also deteriorate – which would lead to further financial burdens for the country. Domestic and foreign companies have already been hesitant to invest in recent months; France as a business location is at risk of damage if the stalemate continues.

In France, the president sets the tone in foreign policy. However, if the political crisis at home were to continue, it would also affect Macron’s performance on the international stage or in Brussels. If, in addition to Germany, there is also a parallel political standstill in France due to an early federal election, that is bad for the EU.

Foreign Minister Sébastien Lecornu has already warned that France’s aid to Ukraine could suffer if the government falls and there is no budget agreement. France supplies Ukraine with a lot of discarded military material. But if France lacks budget funds to purchase new weapons for its own army, it cannot hand over used aircraft or vehicles to Kiev.