It is unwise, indeed strategically unwise, to deploy so many highly qualified people in areas that have little future prospects. These people are needed in the dynamic fields. Germany has made important contributions to the development of solar technology, but solar modules today come from China.
Just as Germany and Europe were left behind by solar technology, this is also threatening to become a reality with artificial intelligence. At the same time will AI feared as a “job killer”. How do you see the situation?
There is an interesting observation among American companies that are investing the most in AI: they are now hiring instead of cutting them. On the other hand, companies that aggressively emphasize laying off employees because of AI are those that are already struggling to reduce costs. They hope that AI will solve this problem for them. The impact of AI on the labor market is nuanced. It is unclear whether there will be massive job losses. And it is also unclear whether the tech companies’ promises regarding AI will be kept.
There are reports of companies cutting spending on AI because it is too expensive and does not deliver the expected benefits. For thirty years there have been people who have been peddling the claim that new technologies will revolutionize the economy. Now this is what is being said about AI. But we haven’t seen a revolutionary increase in productivity. You should approach all the promises of the tech industry with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Donald Trump avoided this as much as possible for a while – the AI companies under him did not have to fear regulation for a long time.
The USA will have to pay a price for this. In general: So many resources flow into AI, other areas of the economy are degraded for it. Yes, the tech sector is currently experiencing a period of exceptional dynamism, but it won’t last forever. At some point the bubble will burst and the USA could face a long phase of stagnation.
Which brings us back to the belief in infinite growth.
After the end of the Second World War, there was a growth unprecedented in human history. We are now on the way to an average. But many people see this return as a failure. The economists who promised eternal growth with their models are not innocent of this. But politicians have also promised a return to growth since the financial crisis of 2008. But no one can keep this promise.
Will you still remain true to your optimism?
