USA and Iran are negotiating: breakthrough or escalation?

diplomacy

USA and Iran are negotiating: breakthrough or escalation?

The negotiations between government representatives from Washington and Tehran are entering a decisive round. A lot is at stake.

Against the backdrop of military tensions, negotiations between the USA and Iran are entering a decisive round. Delegations from both countries want to meet again in Geneva today. The Gulf state of Oman is once again mediating. A week ago, US President Donald Trump gave the government in Tehran an ultimatum until the beginning of March. “Either we reach an agreement or it becomes unfortunate for them,” he said. Answers to central questions:

The focus of the talks is the controversial Iranian nuclear program. The USA and other Western countries want to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons. While Tehran asserts that it will only use its nuclear program for civil purposes, the government is prepared to compromise on restrictions. This includes, for example, only enriching uranium up to a small percentage, as was already agreed in the Vienna nuclear deal in 2015. Trump unilaterally terminated this agreement in 2018.

However, Tehran has defined several red lines to the outside world. They do not want to give up the uranium enrichment industry completely, and limiting the rocket program is also non-negotiable. Tehran views its arsenal as the only effective military deterrent.

The Iranian side also does not want to talk about supporting militant groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Iranian government had already set the goal of lifting the tough economic sanctions during the last negotiations with the USA. The punitive measures have largely isolated the country from the international financial market and deterred investors. They are seen as the reason for the catastrophic economic situation, which has hollowed out the middle class and pushed parts of the population to the brink of poverty.

However, in view of the military threats, Iran’s government is also likely to pursue the goal of averting war against its own country. The government recently emphasized its willingness to reach an agreement, but at the same time also held out the prospect of military escalation. President Massoud Peseschkian threatened an “all-out war” if religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was attacked. Trump has stated several times in recent weeks that a change of power in Iran is in his interest.

Khamenei himself warned the US at the beginning of February: “The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war.” Iran does not want war and will not start one. The religious leader has the final say in all strategic matters in Tehran.

After US President Trump gave the Iranian leadership an ultimatum, many experts and observers are now expecting a decisive round of negotiations. It is completely unclear whether and to what concessions the Iranian side is prepared. Externally, the negotiating team led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi demonstrates determination and strength. The government in Tehran always emphasizes that Iran will not negotiate under pressure or intimidation.