Estimates vary as to how many constituencies are still open. “RealClear Polling” currently assumes 20 constituencies, while other polls believe up to 50 are contested.
Can Democrats also win the Senate in the midterms?
In the Senate, the Democrats also believe they have some chances of winning the majority in the second chamber of Congress. This is confirmed by current surveys before the elections in the USA.
Republicans currently have a six-seat majority. In order to achieve a majority in the Senate after the midterm elections, the Democrats would have to defend their current seats and also gain at least four more. In the event of a tie, US Vice President JD Vance acts as a “tiebreaker” with his vote and makes the difference.
Midterm polls: Close race for the Senate is emerging
Although the numbers change almost daily, “Real Clear Polling” is currently predicting a very close race for the Senate, with the Democrats slightly favorites. It therefore expects a draw in which both parties will probably win 46 seats each. In the remaining races for a seat in the Senate, Democrats even have a good chance of prevailing in the Republican heartland such as Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and Kansas.
In the so-called toss-ups, i.e. particularly close races whose outcome can hardly be predicted, the survey experts expect that Democrats could prevail and thus get 53 seats, while the Republicans would get 47 seats.
Survey before the US elections: Trump at a record low
According to a new survey, US President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low shortly before the midterms. In a Reuters/Ipsos survey completed on Monday, 31 percent of US citizens were satisfied with his administration. This is one percentage point less than two weeks ago and the lowest value in his two terms in office.
In view of high gasoline prices, US citizens are apparently ready to punish the Republican Party in the US midterm elections on November 3rd: When asked which party they would vote for today, 47 percent of registered voters chose the Democrats and 35 percent chose the Republicans. The lead of twelve percentage points is the largest in the campaign so far before the elections in the USA.
1,679 adults in the US took part in the four-day online survey around two weeks before the 2026 midterms, including 1,279 registered voters. The margin of error is two percentage points for all respondents and three points for registered voters.
