Trump and Harris are tied in the polls. A draw is unlikely, but possible. What would happen then is clearly stated.
It seems completely unclear whether former US President Donald Trump or current US Vice President Kamala Harris will win the presidential election. In the most recent surveys their values were similarly high. In the end, the election could depend on a few voters in a handful of unpredictable swing states. Therefore, a draw between the two candidates no longer seems so unlikely.
However, this has never happened in modern American history. In 1800 there was actually a draw. The electoral system looked different back then and was adjusted shortly afterwards to avoid such stalemate situations.
In the current election, there are only a few scenarios in which a tie would actually occur. According to American survey specialist Nate Silver, the probability of this is 0.3 percent. Such a stalemate could be possible if Harris wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Trump prevails in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and a left-leaning constituency in Nebraska.
A tie would be achieved if exactly 269 voters voted for both candidates. In the United States, it is not the people who elect the president, but rather the so-called Electoral College. Each state has a certain number of electors who cast a total of 538 votes. To become president, a candidate needs more than half the votes: at least 270.
But what would happen if such a stalemate actually occurred? The rulebook of US politics sets out what would happen next, in Article II of the Constitution and the Twelfth Amendment. The election would then take place in the US House of Representatives. After the newly elected congressmen are sworn in, all 435 representatives would then elect the president.
However, these representatives do not vote individually. Instead, they cast a vote together as a joint delegation from their state, regardless of the population size of their home state. That means a small state like Wyoming has the same vote as a populous state like California. To win, a candidate would then have to receive a majority of the states’ votes, i.e. at least 26.
According to some media reports, the Republicans would currently have an advantage in such an election. The party currently controls 26 delegations in the US House of Representatives, the Democrats only 22. In two delegations, members of the two parties are equally represented. But all of that can change – depending on what comes out of the elections.
The US Senate would decide who would become vice president. Unlike in the House of Representatives, here each member votes individually, not for the state. Whoever receives 51 votes becomes vice president. Because there are two separate votes, the president and vice president could even end up coming from different parties.
This vice president would then also take over the duties of the president if there is no winner in the election in the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives would then vote until there is a new president.
