Can you further describe the climate in Russia?
The purpose of Russian propaganda is to make people apathetic. They are shown contradictory and confusing representations of reality every day. There is constant and deliberate lying. And people know they are being lied to. You watch those terrible evening talk shows and then say to yourself, “I don’t want anything to do with this. I can’t understand what’s true and what’s not, so I’ll just stay home.”
Russian propaganda and disinformation also works in Germany. The AfD and the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) – both extremely Russia-friendly – also benefit from this.
This trend has been growing in Germany for years. But politicians from the democratic center have largely ignored this. Russian influence on the elections in Germany could already be observed in 2017. A first important step back then was to address the Russian-speaking population in Germany through pro-Putin media. At that time, the AfD was already using platforms such as Twitter, far away from conventional media, to gain influence.
Do you have any advice?
Years later, it is now much more difficult to reach voters. But it’s not impossible. Poland is a good example of this. With optimism and targeted approach, the moderate parties have recently won there, despite similar challenges to those in Germany. To withdraw support for Ukraine in view of the successes of the AfD and BSW? That would be the worst thing Germany could do. Because it would confirm all the pro-Russian narratives and reward the Kremlin’s efforts.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced a “turning point”. But it doesn’t seem to have reached the minds of many Germans yet. Why?
Germany was a major beneficiary of the political and economic system created in the 1990s. Trade with Russia, China and the post-Soviet world became possible without thinking about politics or security. There was a perception that economics was somehow apolitical. People even thought that trade was a good thing for the democratization and liberalization of the world.
So “change through trade” à la Willy Brandt has finally failed?
It has now been proven that this concept does not work that way. Economics and trade have political implications. The Russians used the financial system to their own advantage: very few people acquired wealth to stay in power and create an autocratic, even totalitarian state. The Chinese also have a different agenda than us. They wanted to steal our intellectual property, copy our industrial systems and build their own idea of economics on top of it. We are in a new phase – both in the economy and in politics.
Can Germany prepare for this new phase?
That depends on whether Germany can develop a new sense of security policy. There are military threats, but at the same time there is an information war and an ideological war. The world is no longer neutral and the Germans have to become more agile in order to be able to defend themselves.
So are we at a crossroads?
Yes. The world as it was until 2014, until the Russian invasion of Crimea, was almost perfectly tailored to Germany. As I said, Germany was a huge beneficiary of the post-war and post-Cold War periods. Under the NATO umbrella, without its own geopolitics, but with a very powerful economy. This era for Germany is now over.
How can liberal democracies defend themselves against autocrats?
There are many options. First, we can address kleptocracy by preventing banks from facilitating money laundering and preventing anonymous companies from owning property. Second, we can regulate the internet – not through censorship, but by opening up social media algorithms to scrutiny and holding platforms accountable for what they publish. We could also change the rules for online advertising, where outrage currently drives clicks and revenue, to make online discourse more democratic.
A more holistic approach to the war in Ukraine is needed, identifying economic pressure points against Russia and organizing democratic allies or even a coalition of willing nations around these ideas. We also need to rethink deterrence – how to prevent autocratic aggression. We may be able to do this by adjusting our thinking about the military and increasing our defense production.
What about international organizations like the United Nations?
The international institutions of the 20th century are no longer effective today. We should focus on building coalitions of willing countries for specific projects. The old model, in which every nation has to agree, no longer works. Each country should also reevaluate its economic ties to autocracies by asking the questions: Does this serve our citizens and improve our security?
In order to improve your own security, you should prepare for a future US President Trump. What should we expect?
Trump has been consistent about few things over the years. One of them is his obsession with Russia. The other is the belief that the United States has wasted time and money on its allies. He already wrote in one of his books: “Why did we waste our time in World War II defending these people?” And Trump loves the idea of tariffs, even though he doesn’t understand the economics behind them. He was unable to implement many of these ideas in his first term because he did not understand how the government apparatus worked. And he had people around him who didn’t share his views on leaving NATO or aligning with Russia. But he may do so in a second term.
Do you think there is a likely risk of a NATO exit?
I interviewed John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, for my podcast “Autocracy in America.” He tells a story from 2018, when he was on his way to a NATO summit with Trump. In the car, Trump turns to him and says: “Okay, John, we’re going to make history today. We’re leaving NATO.” They immediately called Defense Secretary James Mattis. Together they somehow convinced Trump that leaving NATO would be bad for his poll numbers. But Trump’s instinct is to leave NATO.
Trump seems particularly obsessed with Germany. Why actually?
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, he didn’t like Angela Merkel. This antipathy is probably partly due to his sexism and his dislike of powerful women in politics. But he also seems to be obsessed with German cars. Trump constantly asks himself: “How come everyone drives a Mercedes?” or “Why are there no Chevrolets in Munich?” The simple answer is: Mercedes is a great car, a Chevrolet is not. By the way, I don’t own a car.
Ms. Applebaum, thank youn for the conversation.
