The effects of global climate change have reached frightening proportions in the Mediterranean. According to new research from the World Weather Attribution Initiative, climate change’s share of extreme sea temperatures in the Mediterranean has reached nearly 2 degrees. While approximately 70 percent of the Eastern Mediterranean is experiencing a marine heat wave, it is calculated that this rate will only remain around 9 percent in a world without human-induced global warming. Scientists warn that rapid warming of the seas may affect not only the ecosystem, but also temperatures in coastal cities, fisheries and the risk of heavy rainfall in autumn.
DIFFERENT REGIONS WERE EXAMINED
The latest research, prepared with the participation of scientists from Switzerland, Sweden, the USA, Ireland and the UK, revealed that sea surface temperatures in the wide region extending from the coast of Ireland to the east of the Mediterranean have increased to extraordinary levels due to human-induced climate change. In the research, four regions were examined separately: the Celtic Sea and its surroundings, the Bay of Biscay and the coasts of the Iberian Peninsula, the Western Mediterranean and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea and Adriatic were also included in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Scientists compared observational records with climate models by analyzing both the hottest 14-day period during the year and especially the hottest 14-day period in July.
EXCEEDED THE GLOBAL AVERAGE
The results are particularly striking for the Mediterranean. The world has warmed by about 1.4 degrees compared to pre-industrial times, but the rate of increase in extreme sea surface temperatures in some parts of the Mediterranean is well above this. According to observational data, the increase in extreme sea temperatures reached approximately 1.2 degrees in the Celtic region and approximately 1.5 degrees around the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Peninsula. The increase in the Western Mediterranean was calculated as approximately 3.1 degrees and in the Eastern Mediterranean as 2.6 degrees. When researchers evaluated climate models and observations together, they determined that human-induced climate change made a direct contribution of approximately 2 degrees to extreme sea temperatures in the Mediterranean.
STUNNING DIFFERENCE IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
One of the most striking findings of the research emerged in areas covered by marine heat waves. By 2026, approximately 90 percent of the Bay of Biscay and the coast of the Iberian Peninsula will be exposed to marine heatwave conditions. The difference in the Eastern Mediterranean was found to be much larger. Experts say the results They state that it presents a remarkable picture for the future of the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and seas around Türkiye. As a result of the research, it was also determined that sea surface temperatures in some regions in the Mediterranean in June were up to 6 degrees above the 1990-2020 average.
INVASIVE SPECIES ARE PROliferating
Another danger for the Mediterranean is the spread of alien and invasive species. According to previous research cited in the WWA report, warming-related changes have occurred in the distribution area of approximately a thousand alien marine species in the Mediterranean. The spread of predatory species that like warm water, such as lionfish, has increased the pressure on native species. It is also stated that if warming continues, the habitats of commercially important species such as cod, whiting, mackerel, scallops and lobster may change seriously, and some fisheries resources may face the risk of collapse.
TEMPERATURE RECORD
One of the striking results obtained from the research was the data for July. Accordingly, the Mediterranean reached 27 degrees in July. Thus, the average surface temperature was recorded as the warmest July. Dr. from the ICARUS Climate Research Center at Maynooth University. Claire Bergin pointed out that human-induced climate change has warmed the Mediterranean by approximately 2 degrees and the seas of Western Europe by 1.3-1.4 degrees, and warned that this could reshape the ecosystems on which coastal communities depend for food and income.
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