Tensions between Moscow and the Baltics are growing

Security in the Baltic Sea region

Tensions between Moscow and the Baltics are growing

Russia accuses the Baltic states of supporting Ukrainian drone attacks. It threatens retaliation. But the three EU and NATO countries will not allow themselves to be intimidated – on the contrary.

Tensions are heating up between Russia and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The trigger was the painful Ukrainian drone attacks on the northwest of Russia – Moscow blames the Balts for some of the blame. On the other hand, Ukrainian drones repeatedly stray into the airspace of the three EU and NATO countries – they suspect Russian electronic warfare is behind this.

Estonia shot down one such drone. There was another drone alarm in Lithuania on Wednesday. The head of state in Vilnius was temporarily placed in bunkers for protection. And in the precarious security situation of the small Baltic Sea neighbors, there is also a dispute over the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Russia’s foreign intelligence service SWR accused Latvia of launching Ukrainian drones from Latvian territory. Without any evidence, the secret service claimed that Ukrainian drone units were already stationed at several Latvian military bases.

The SWR blatantly threatened that the “coordinates of the decision-making centers in Latvia were known.” Even NATO membership will not protect the country from retaliation. This warning was also reiterated by Russia’s UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya to the UN Security Council, of which Latvia is currently a non-permanent member.

The government in Riga and the Latvian UN representative Sanita Pavluta-Deslandes rejected the statements as a blatant lie. According to President Edgars Rinkevics, Latvia discussed the matter with its allies. NATO is united on the issue. He called on the population to be calm and did not rule out that Russia would continue to try to intimidate and sow doubt with false statements. “We have to react to this with a cool head,” said Rinkevics.

In Latvia, as well as the other two countries, many see the Russian allegations as a diversionary tactic. “Russian disinformation is massive, and they are trying to use it to justify their inability to defend themselves against legitimate Ukrainian self-defense efforts in Russian airspace,” said Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze. Ukraine has apologized for the errant flights of its drones. She suspects that Russian jammers in the St. Petersburg area are involved.

The Baltic states see themselves at risk from Russia and are actively preparing for possible aggression with high military expenditure. They do belong to NATO. But their troops could only come to help by land across the narrow border between Poland and Lithuania – Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad are dangerously close. Moscow repeatedly tries to use the Russian minorities in Estonia and Latvia as a means of exerting pressure.

In Kaliningrad, the area around the former Königsberg, Moscow has stationed nuclear-capable Iskander medium-range missiles. With a range of around 500 kilometers, they could reach Berlin. But Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys from Lithuania recently said that Russia could be effectively deterred, especially in Kaliningrad.