Russia is at war, China’s power is growing and Donald Trump will transform the USA: upheavals in the global power structure are shaking the old order. Political scientist Herfried Münkler explains how Europe can assert itself.
The old world order is shaking tremendously, and Russia is not the only one attacking it with its war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, in the USA, Donald Trump is returning to the White House and only has his own interests in mind. What will happen to Europe, what will happen to Germany in these uncertain times? Herfried Münkler, renowned political scientist and author of the book “World in Turmoil”, predicts that several major powers will determine the global order in the future. Münkler explains in an interview how Europe could belong to this group.
t-online: Professor Münkler, do men like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump even take Germany and Europe seriously?
Herfried Münkler: In some respects, Vladimir Putin takes the European Union seriously. Otherwise he would hardly try to dismantle the EU by intervening in elections with disinformation campaigns and playing EU member states off against each other. Putin knows full well that the Europeans are actually superior to him. Russia’s gross domestic product is at the level of Spain; with around 450 million people, the EU has three times as many inhabitants as Russia. That’s why Putin wants to divide the EU.
At the same time, it should be clear to Putin that Europe is at the mercy of the United States militarily and is politically divided.
Europe’s military capabilities and the will to use them are low. Nevertheless, Putin is clear about Europe’s potential. This results in his policy towards Europe: Putin wants to use Europe for his own benefit. Essentially, he has the idea that Russia can work well together with a Europe separated from the transatlantic West under German and French guidance. This is what Putin said in his widely applauded speech in the Bundestag in 2001, during which the German parliamentarians did not notice what he was actually getting at: Russia wants to exercise power and influence from Vladivostok to Lisbon, and we should have no illusions about that.
Herfried Münklerborn in 1951, taught political science at the Humboldt University in Berlin until his retirement in 2018. The award-winning political scientist is the author of numerous books, including most recently “World in turmoil. The order of powers in the 21st century“. Released on March 11, 2025 with “Power in transition. “Germany’s role in Europe and the challenges of the 21st century” Münkler’s latest book.
Are we also under illusions about revisionist China and the USA, which will soon be ruled again by Donald Trump?
Trump wants to appear as a successful dealmaker who always has the upper hand. A united and capable EU is rather undesirable; he prefers European actors who are at odds with each other. Xi Jinping also prefers to see the Europeans as divided; he wants to prevent a possible unified policy critical of China, for example in the form of further tariff policy measures. With the so-called China-Central-Eastern Europe summit, Beijing has already successfully made a number of EU states economically dependent. The New Silk Road strategy is working.
So the already fragmented Europe is being further divided by all sorts of other actors according to the motto “divide and conquer”?
All major global political players have the EU on their radar, yes, but no one fears it as a serious political opponent. This is unfortunate, but also of our own making.
In your book “World in Turmoil” you predict that five powers will probably determine the world order in the future. The USA, China, Russia and India are very likely to be among them, the EU is more of a shaky candidate. How can Europeans secure membership in this “directorate of global order”?
First of all, Europeans should reflect on their strengths and not allow themselves to be divided. Let’s take the emergence of right-wing populist national governments, which are in a certain respect Putin’s assistants, but also want to dismantle the EU on their own initiative: it should shrink economically into an economic community. In the political sphere, these people propagate the ancient history of a Europe of fatherlands, where everyone acts for themselves and everyone acts against everyone else. It would be better if a new group of EU states came together instead to muster the political will and initiate changes.
