Rising tension in oil prices

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Lerato Khumalo

A barrel of Brent oil is traded at $71.80 in international markets.

The barrel price of Brent oil, which rose to $71.61 yesterday, completed the day at $71.60.

The barrel price of Brent oil increased by approximately 0.3 percent compared to the closing time at 09.38 today, reaching $71.80. At the same hour, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was traded at $66.91 a barrel.

The increase in US-Iran tensions and the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks were effective in the rise in prices.

In the news of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) newspaper, based on US government officials and former soldiers, it was claimed that the USA moved its largest air force to date to the Middle East region after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and was preparing for a possible attack “against Iran”.

US President Donald Trump noted that they can see where the process regarding Iran will evolve within 10 days and said, “We must make a meaningful agreement with Iran, otherwise bad things will happen.” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was reported to have instructed the army and civil defense units to “prepare for war” regarding the possible attack of the USA on Iran, threatened the Tehran administration with “a response they could not even imagine” if they retaliated.

Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) Amir Said Iravani said, “In case of military attack, Iran will respond decisively and proportionately, using its right of self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations (UN) Charter.” he said.

Increasing tensions between Washington and Tehran and increasing concerns that there may be an interruption in the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical strait for global energy trade, supported the prices.

On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reported that in the tripartite negotiations held in Geneva, Switzerland, between the USA, Russia and Ukraine, progress was made in the military rather than the political field.

The lack of progress in the talks weakened hopes that sanctions on Russian energy exports could be eased, thus supporting prices.

The decrease in crude oil stocks in the USA, contrary to expectations, also supported the prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that commercial crude oil stocks in the country decreased by approximately 9 million barrels last week to 419 million 800 thousand barrels. Market expectation was that stocks would increase by approximately 1 million 700 thousand barrels.

Strategic crude oil stocks, which are not included in commercial crude oil stocks, increased by 200 thousand barrels and reached the level of 415 million 400 thousand barrels.

During this period, US gasoline stocks decreased by approximately 3 million 200 thousand barrels, reaching 255 million 800 thousand barrels.

It is stated that technically $ 77.30 can be watched as resistance and $ 66.63 as support for Brent oil.