Pessimistic scenarios! Danger of drought and hunger in Asia


Lerato Khumalo

In Turkey, where red meat prices are skyrocketing, news from climate scientists also rings alarm bells. It is stated that high prices may remain higher in the coming years. The reason is the drought that cannot be prevented. Climate experts who have published research state that drought affects grasslands and pastures extremely negatively in the West Asian region, where Turkey is located, and that the most concrete result of this situation will be an increase in dairy and meat products. While the research titled “Future Drought Risk and Adaptation of Livestock in Eurasian Rangelands” is available for access, the study focuses on predictions covering the years 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 for the Eurasian region.

The research includes satellite data on drought in the West Asian region.


In addition to Turkey, climate scientists from China, Japan, Mongolia, Germany and France took part in the study. Pessimistic scenarios for the future were conveyed in the research with the following statements: “It is predicted that drought risk and vulnerability will increase in size and area in Eurasian rangelands, and that there will be greater increases in medium and high warming scenarios in 2071-2100 compared to 2031-2060. The risk will increase in West Asia.” , resulting from longer and more intense droughts and vulnerability, while the higher risk in Central and East Asia is mainly associated with increased vulnerability, indicating that overall risk is higher where vulnerability increases. These findings suggest that future droughts could further exacerbate animal feed shortages and negatively impact livestock farming.

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It is stated that pastures, especially in the eastern regions of Turkey, will be negatively affected.


In the research, which provides information about the points where the danger is concentrated in Asia, Eastern Turkey, Northern Iran, Eastern Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Southwest Mongolia are described as “drought-prone regions” and the following information is included: “Water crises triggered by climate change are the most important threat.” It will happen. Therefore, it is important to protect water resources, support and ensure the widespread use of modern water saving techniques, and develop drought-resistant species.


In the research, which lists data on rainfall and drought in recent years, in addition to the dire picture that emerges, it is stated that “The number of people engaged in animal husbandry is decreasing from year to year due to climate or environmental migration, threatening the future sustainability of animal husbandry.” The conclusion of the research includes the following statements: “The results have practical implications for rangeland management, which should be adapted to the ecological and socioeconomic contexts of different countries in the region. Existing traditional ecological knowledge can be leveraged to adapt to drought risk and embedded in a broader set of adaptation measures that include management improvements, social transformations, capacity building and policy reforms for multiple stakeholders.

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Successive increases in meat prices have weakened the citizens.