For many people this meant a deep turning point. For decades, Russia was seen not only as a political partner, but also as a cultural and economic point of reference – often linked to family relationships. Today the presence of Ukrainian refugees is part of everyday life. Although the majority moved on to EU countries in the first year of the war, many stayed.
Ukrainian cafés, shops and services are now a natural part of the cityscape, especially in Chișinău. The capital also developed into an important hub for people from southern Ukraine, especially for air travel to Western Europe.
For the Moldovan government, the invasion marked a profound turning point. The leadership in Chișinău had already pursued a rapprochement with the European Union, but at the same time pursued a pragmatic Russia policy: military neutrality, a cautious foreign policy and an attempt to secure cheap energy supplies in order to promote domestic political reforms.
This balancing act became obsolete on February 24, 2022. Russia’s imperial claim to Ukraine, aggressive rhetoric and disregard for territorial integrity hit Moldova to the core. The country knows the consequences of Russian influence from its own experience. The Transnistria conflict of the early 1990s – fueled politically and supported militarily by Moscow – left behind a territorial conflict that remains unresolved to this day. The continued presence of Russian troops remains a persistent obstacle to Moldova’s European ambitions.
Historically, Moldova shares key experiences with Ukraine. Decades of Russian and Soviet dominance have shaped political culture, identity and social debates. Moldovan society remains divided on foreign policy issues. According to surveys, around 60 percent support an EU course, around 40 percent are more oriented towards Russia or prefer a neutral, intermediate position.
But it is precisely this neutrality that is increasingly proving to be fragile. For a small state without reliable security guarantees, it is less a shield than a risk factor. President Maia Sandu is therefore relying on a clear strategic direction: Moldova’s future lies in the European Union.
Their political success shows that a positive vision can mobilize – despite economic difficulties, rising costs of living, social polarization and massive disinformation campaigns. The recent elections made it clear that Russian attempts at influence are neither necessarily successful nor politically all-powerful.
