Istanbul Planning Agency (IPA) published a report on the possible Istanbul earthquake on the 25th anniversary of the Marmara Earthquake. The report touched on the impact of the expected 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul, It was underlined that 20 percent of the buildings will be seriously damaged, that there are 1.3 million risky houses in Istanbul and that 230 thousand buildings need to be transformed urgently. According to the latest data, Avcılar, Küçükçekmece, Büyükçekmece, Esenyurt, Silivri are the districts that are at risk due to both the worn-out building stock and the weak ground. The ground is stronger in places such as Başakşehir, Arnavutköy, Çatalca, Sarıyer, Beşiktaş.
7.5 EXPECTED
In the Istanbul Metropolitan Area Sub-Region Master Plan Report, under the title Earthquake Scenario, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of 6 or higher causing damage in Istanbul is 83 percent. while the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 occurring is estimated as 30 percent. Istanbul
and the biggest impact on its surroundings It is stated that the earthquake will have a magnitude of 7.5 and the scenarios focus on this magnitude.
47 THOUSAND SERIOUSLY DAMAGED STRUCTURES
On the other hand, according to calculations, the economic loss that an earthquake in Istanbul will cause is estimated at 120 billion dollars. Within the scope of the Update of Istanbul’s Possible Earthquake Losses Estimates study, it is stated that in a scenario earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5, the number of very severely damaged buildings is on average 5 thousand, the number of severely damaged buildings is on average 20 thousand and the number of slightly damaged buildings is 300 thousand. According to the report, the number of very severely and heavily damaged buildings that were damaged beyond repair and needed to be rebuilt as a result of the earthquake was determined as 47,840; this figure constitutes 4.1 percent of all buildings in Istanbul.
UNTIL SILIVRI…
According to the modeling for two different earthquake scenarios within the scope of the Istanbul Province Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan Study Including Seismic Micro-Zoning conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, it is estimated that 34.8 percent of the buildings in Istanbul will suffer severe, moderate and mild damage in the event of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on the line extending from the west of the NAF to Silivri.
THE NORTH OF ISTANBUL IS SAFER
Murat Yün, Head of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Earthquake Risk Management and Urban Development Department, said in his latest statement, “Since the North Anatolian Fault line is in the Marmara Sea, we can define the areas between the E-5 and the sea, especially the southern parts of the European Side, as riskier districts due to their proximity to the fault and the damage the ground causes to the structure by magnifying the earthquake effect. In our findings, we also found that both the worn-out building stock and the weak ground in these areas are at higher risk. Avcılar, Küçükçekmece, Büyükçekmece, Esenyurt, Silivri are dangerous. “If the building is new and you live in a building that complies with the post-2018 regulations, it is more safe to say. The ground is stronger in the north of Istanbul. The ground is stronger in places like Başakşehir, Arnavutköy, Çatalca, Sarıyer, Beşiktaş,” he said.
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