The US election will probably be decided in the swing states. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wanted to make way for Donald Trump on the ballot there. Will the plan fail?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is facing a new problem – and with it possibly former US President Donald Trump in his fight for the White House. Kennedy announced last week that he would withdraw as a candidate from the swing states that are particularly contested between Democrats and Republicans. At the same time, he declared that he would support Trump in the future.
However, Kennedy’s withdrawal from the decisive states is proving difficult, according to the US broadcaster NPR on Tuesday. A review has shown that Kennedy will probably not be able to disappear from the ballot in four of the seven most important swing states for various bureaucratic reasons. This affects Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, explained the problem to the broadcaster as follows: “Every state has different procedures and deadlines for ballot access and withdrawal. The later a withdrawal occurs, the more difficult it is for a state to remove a name from the ballot.” In some states, the deadlines have already passed, and many have begun printing the ballots.
In the polls before Kennedy’s withdrawal, the 70-year-old was at around three percent of the nationwide voter approval rating in the race with Harris and Trump, and in the contested “swing states” a few thousand votes can decide the election. In the last polls, it looked as if Kennedy’s candidacy would cost Trump more important votes than Harris, according to the US portal “The Hill”.
Before his announcement, Kennedy’s campaign had stated that it had collected enough signatures in 47 states and had received official access in 22 states. However, it remains unclear how many voters in a swing state would actually vote for Kennedy if he were unable to have himself removed from the ballot.
Kennedy’s campaign was long considered important because of the complex US electoral system. While most of the 50 states are firmly in the hands of the Republicans or Democrats, a few are hotly contested – they are called “swing states”. Particularly close races are expected this year in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
With their votes in November, voters determine the composition of the 538-member electoral college, which ultimately elects the president. To win, candidates need at least 270 electoral votes. The decisive factor here is the majority in the electoral college (“electoral vote”) and not the actual majority of votes across the country (“popular vote”).
The number of electors per state is roughly based on the size of the population. Due to the majority voting system that applies in almost all states, the winner of a state receives all of the electors – even in the case of narrow victories.
