In the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) survey, market participants’ expectation of consumer prices (CPI) increased from 28.04 percent to 29.98 percent.
The previous month decreased from 28.34 percent to 28.04 percent. In addition to the inflation expectations of the market, the expectations of the exchange rate were broken.
The CBRT announced the results of the “Market Participants Survey” for April.
Participants’ expectation of Consumer Inflation (CPI) of the participants was 28.04 percent in the previous survey period, while 29.98 percent in this survey period. After 12 months, the CPI expectation was 24.55 percent in the previous survey period, while this survey period was 25.56 percent. After 24 months, the CPI expectation was 17.06 percent and 17.69 percent, respectively during the same survey periods.
The results of the Market Participants Survey are as follows;
“In April of April 2025, when the probability estimates of the participants about 12 months after the participants were evaluated, the CPI will increase in the range of 17.12 percent of 20.00 – 22.99 percent, 35.59 percent, 23.00 – 25.99 percent, 34.00 – 28.99 percent.
According to the assessment based on point estimates (3) in the same survey period, 12.31 percent of the participants are observed to be in the range of 20.00 – 22.99 percent of the expectations, 32.31 percent of the expectations of 23.00 – 25.99 percent, 44.62 percent of their expectations are 26.00 – 28.99 percent.
In April of April 2025, the probability estimates of the participants after 24 months after the participants are evaluated, the CPI is an average of 12.98 percent probability of 13.00 – 15.99 percent, 35.75 percent probably in 16.00 – 18.99 percent, 25.96 percent of the possibility of 19.00 – 21.99 percent.
According to the evaluation based on point estimates (3) in the same survey period, when the expectations of CPI inflation expectations after 24 months, 12.28 percent of the participants are between 13.00 – 15.99 percent of the expectations, 38.60 percent of the expectations of 38.60 percent, 29.82 percent of the expectations of 29.82 percent.
The participants’ current monthly interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 42.33 percent in the previous survey period, while 46.00 percent during the survey period. The CBRT’s one -week repo tender interest rate was 42.50 percent in this survey period, as in the previous survey period.
The expectation of the participants’ current year -end exchange rate (US dollar/TL) was 42,79 TL in the previous survey period, while this survey period was 43,60 TL. After 12 months, the exchange rate expectation was 44.42 TL in the previous survey period, while in this survey period, it was 45,85 TL.
While the participants’ growth expectation of GDP 2025 was 3.1 percent in the previous survey period, it was 3.0 percent in this survey period. GDP 2026 growth expectation was 4.0 percent in the previous survey period, while this survey period was 3.8 percent. “
