While global markets remained negative due to concerns about the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, all eyes turned to geopolitical developments and intense macroeconomic data flow.
While concerns that the conflict in the Middle East could affect global trade and increase inflationary pressures again increased the global risk perception, concerns about energy supply deepened after the Strait of Hormuz was closed to passages.
US President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he has ordered the provision of political risk insurance and guarantee at a very reasonable price for the financial security of all maritime trade passing through the Gulf, especially energy, and that, if necessary, the US navy will begin to escort tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
While Trump emphasized that the USA will ensure the free flow of energy no matter what, he stated that the economic and military power of the USA is the largest in the world and that more steps will come.
Analysts stated that there is concern that the rise in energy prices could fuel inflation and further complicate the policy decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is already cautious about price increases resulting from tariffs.
On the other hand, Trump reacted harshly to Spain, which did not allow the USA to use its bases, and gave the message that they could cut off commercial and economic relations with this country.
Stating that European countries should give more support to the USA and Israel in the Iran process, Trump criticized England as well as Spain with harsh words on this issue.
Regarding Britain’s process of leasing Diego Garcia Island, where the US base is located, for a hundred years, he said, “England is also far from cooperation. Britain’s attitude is shocking, but we do not live in the Churchill era.” he said.
In addition to the intense agenda regarding the conflicts in the Middle East, the statements of Fed officials were also closely followed. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it was too early to know what the impact of the conflict in the Middle East would be on inflation.
Stating that he thinks the monetary policy is in a very good position, Kashkari said, “We need to see how long the effect of this new shock that will potentially hit the global economy will last and how big it will be.” he said.
New York Fed President John Williams stated that additional interest rate cuts would be necessary if inflation slowed. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid stated that inflation has been above the bank’s target for almost 5 years and that there is no room for complacency.
On the macroeconomic side, the February ADP private sector employment data and the Fed’s Beige Book report, which will be announced today, will be in the focus of investors.
With these developments, yesterday the Dow Jones index fell by 0.83 percent, the Nasdaq index by 1.02 percent and the S&P 500 index by 0.94 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day negatively.
The rise in oil prices moved to the 5th trading day due to the conflicts in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent oil, which reached 84.3 dollars yesterday, reached its highest level since July 2024.
Although the rise in oil prices slowed down after Trump’s statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the barrel price of Brent oil closed at $80.4 with a 2.8 percent increase yesterday. Brent oil, which continues its rise in the new trading day, is currently trading at $82.1 with an increase of 2.1 percent.
While a sales-oriented trend was prominent in the US bond markets yesterday, the US 10-year bond interest is at 4.07 percent on the new day.
While the dollar index closed at 99.1 with a 0.7 percent increase yesterday, it follows a horizontal course in the new day.
While the ounce price of gold closed at 5 thousand 96 dollars with a 4.4 percent decrease yesterday due to the rise in the dollar index, profit realizations and high volatility in the markets, it is traded at 5 thousand 156 dollars with a 1.2 percent increase on the new trading day.
While European stock markets followed a negative trend yesterday due to the possibility of prolonging the conflict in the Middle East and the effect of increasing energy prices, index futures contracts in the region started the new day with sales weight.
Banking sector shares in the Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 4.3 percent of their value yesterday, and insurance sector shares lost 3.6 percent. Shares in the travel and entertainment sector fell 2 percent due to the impact of widespread cancellations due to airspace closures in the Middle East.
While the tension in the Middle East continues to be the focus of the region, the leaders of the European Union (EU) institutions held a meeting about the impact of the developments in the Middle East on energy prices and the state of the economy.
EU Council President Antonio Costa, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Euro Group President Kiryakos Pierrakakis attended the meeting held in Brussels yesterday.
On the other hand, sharp declines were observed in the Spanish markets after Trump’s statements that sanctions would be imposed after Spain did not allow the USA to use its military bases. In Spain, the IBEX 35 index closed the day with a decrease of 4.6 percent.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labor and Social Economy Yolanda Diaz, who is from the Sumar alliance, the junior partner of the coalition government in Spain, said in a statement: “Spain will not accept blackmail or attempts to teach a lesson from an aggressive country. We are a country of peace. If the USA wants an ally, it must first respect our sovereignty and international law.” he said.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England decreased by 2.75 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 3.92 percent, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 3.46 percent and the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 3.44 percent.
On the Asian side, selling pressure is deepening due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and concerns about energy supply.
The fact that a large portion of the oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports of the regional countries pass through the closed Strait of Hormuz raises many questions in terms of manufacturing industry costs and production amount in the future.
With the increasing risks to energy supply across Asia and the impact of rising energy costs, the deepening seller trend, led by industrial, trade and transportation companies, is noteworthy. The Kospi index in South Korea is among the most affected markets in the region, with a decrease of more than 10 percent during the day.
While these developments are also in the focus of economic authorities, the South Korean Ministry of Economy and Finance held an emergency meeting yesterday with the participation of relevant ministries to evaluate the impact of the developments in Iran on the country and determine the road map to be followed.
In the statement made by the ministry, it was stated that the country has sufficient oil reserves against the scenario of prolonging the crisis in the Middle East. In the statement, it was noted that the government will work to provide additional oil supply from regions outside the Middle East in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While the macroeconomic data announced in the region are also closely followed, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February in China did not meet expectations with 49. In Japan, February service sector PMI data indicated an expansion in the sector with 53.8.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 4 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 10.2 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 3.1 percent, and the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 1.4 percent near the closing.
Yesterday, Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index, which moved in parallel with the risk perception in global markets, finished the day at 12,933.40 points, losing 3.09 percent of its value.
The April futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 15,164.00 points in the evening session, with an increase of 0.74 percent compared to the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 43.9590, today it is traded at 43.9910 at the opening of the interbank market, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts said that an intense data agenda will be followed today, especially the real effective exchange rate index and monthly price developments report in the country, producer inflation in the Eurozone abroad, ADP private sector employment in the USA and the Fed’s Beige Book report.
Stating that geopolitical developments and the news flow from the Middle East have an impact on the direction of the index, analysts noted that technically, 12,900 and 12,800 points in the BIST 100 index are support, while 13,000 and 13,100 points are resistance.
