While predictions in global markets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may not tighten monetary policies as much as expected and optimism regarding company profitability continue to support risk appetite, the Fed’s meeting minutes are in the focus of investors today.
While geopolitical and economic uncertainties continue around the world, developments in technology and artificial intelligence feed investor appetite. Profitability expectations ahead of the balance sheet season, which will accelerate with the financial results to be announced by major banks in the USA next week, supported positive pricing in stock markets yesterday.
Record levels were seen in the New York stock market, led by technology stocks. While 9 of the 11 main sectors that make up the S&P 500 index increased, the highest increase occurred in the group of companies that provide infrastructure services to households.
In addition, the rise in the shares of chip manufacturers also attracted attention, while the shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 2.8 percent, Broadcom’s shares gained 3.7 percent and Marvell Technology’s shares gained 5.8 percent.
AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su’s announcement that the company plans to significantly increase chip supply in 2027 in the face of rapidly growing demand for artificial intelligence supported the rise in chip stocks.
On the new day, investors seem to have taken a cautious attitude with the mixed signals received from the economic data announced on the Asian side.
On the other hand, the recently announced macroeconomic data indicating that the labor markets in the country have cooled has brought a softening in inflation risks and contributed to a slight decrease in the hawkish forecasts for the Fed. In this regard, all eyes turned to the Fed minutes, which will show the attitude of Fed members towards inflation. Signals regarding the Fed’s projections will be sought in the minutes to be announced this evening.
Expectations that the Fed will not change its policy rate this month remain strong in pricing in money markets. However, it is almost certain that the bank will increase interest rates at the December meeting.
Analysts stated that if the signals indicating a weakening in economic activity in the inflation and employment data to be announced in the USA until the December meeting become stronger, the pricing that the Fed will increase interest rates in December may change.
In addition to these developments, the selling pressure in the bond markets due to inflation concerns and investors’ real interest expectations also eased. While the rise in US short- and long-term bond yields was limited, expectations that the economic management could take steps to support the bond market if deemed necessary came to the fore.
As for geopolitical developments, while the weakness in oil supply continued on the Iranian side, Brent oil continued to remain above 100 dollars per barrel, although the news flow that exports from the rest of the region had increased above pre-war averages somewhat balanced global supply concerns.
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest rate remains flat at 5.31 percent, while the dollar index is at 102.1 with an increase of 0.1 percent.
The ounce price of gold, whose alternative cost has increased due to the appreciation of the dollar and rising bond interest rates, continues to decline. An ounce of gold is sold at $4,134, with a decrease of 0.7 percent. The barrel price of December delivery Brent oil is traded at 101.6 dollars with an increase of 1 percent.
Yesterday, in the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index gained 0.58 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 0.45 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.49 percent. S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at record levels. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day mixed.
– France’s 10-year bond interest rate decreased
While European stock markets were on a positive note yesterday, in addition to artificial intelligence and technology optimism across the region, statements that calmed financial concerns in France came to the fore in pricing.
Reassuring statements from French Finance Minister Roland Lescure reduced concerns about the country’s economy. Lescure stated that the weak euro created room for exporters to breathe, and underlined that there was no loss of confidence on the euro side and that there was no need for help from the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the country’s debt.
Following this statement, France’s 10-year bond interest, which had been on an upward trend for a while, dropped by approximately 10 basis points to 4.74 percent yesterday, as financial concerns were relieved to some extent.
The search for balancing at 1.1220 stands out in the euro/dollar parity, which has fallen to 1.11 levels due to the developments in France. According to data released yesterday, retail sales in the Eurozone increased by 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in August and increased by 1.2 percent on an annual basis.
According to US foreign trade data followed by investors, the country’s foreign trade deficit increased by 13.7 percent on a monthly basis in August, reaching 105.6 billion dollars, and reached the highest level in 17 months.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England increased by 0.42 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy increased by 0.87 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 0.77 percent and the CAC 40 index in France increased by 0.40 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day negatively.
– Asian stock markets remain negative
On the Asian side, contrary to the optimism created by current developments, investors seem to have taken a cautious attitude with the mixed signals received from the macroeconomic data announced in the region before the Fed’s meeting minutes. A seller-oriented trend stands out in the regional markets.
According to the data announced today in Japan, the leading index in the country rose to 118 in August compared to the previous month.
In addition, the earnings of employees in Japan increased by 3.8 percent in August, above expectations. Analysts stated that wage increases give an idea about the persistence of inflation in Japan and noted that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may be effective in its policy steps in the coming period.
On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of India increased the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5 percent. The bank increased its policy rate for the first time since February 2023.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.5 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell by 0.5 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea fell by 1.2 percent near the closing. In China, markets will be closed today due to a holiday.
– CBRT President Karahan: “Fund outflows were largely directed towards deposits”
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 12,374.26 points, losing 0.56 percent of its value.
The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) remained flat in the evening session last night compared to the normal session close.
In his presentation to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey Planning and Budget Commission, Fatih Karahan, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), said, “There have been outflows from the money market and similar funds recently. However, the outflows in the funds have largely been directed towards deposits.” he said.
Stating that they foresee that the disinflation process will gain momentum again, with the contribution of the tight monetary policy stance, as the effects of the shocks fade, Karahan said, “Inflation expectations and pricing behaviors will remain important for the course of disinflation in the coming period.” he said.
Karahan also answered the questions of the MPs in the commission. Karahan said, “(Fund investigations) We evaluate that the overall fund market continues to function healthily and there is no problem affecting the financial system in general.” he said.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 49.1750, today it is traded at 49.1960 at the opening of the interbank market, just above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the treasury cash balance in the country and industrial production in Germany, consumer inflation expectations in the USA and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be monitored abroad today, and noted that technically, 12,300 and 12,200 points in the BIST 100 index are in a support position, while 12,400 and 12,500 points are in a resistance position.
