France: Search for a government and no end in sight

The search for a government coalition in France seems almost hopeless. President Macron is facing serious accusations. Is he clinging to power?

France is at a dead end. Around eight weeks and numerous exploratory talks have passed since the parliamentary elections, but a new government is not in sight. The parties have shown some openness to cooperation, but no one is really daring to step out of their comfort zone. President Emmanuel Macron is coming under increasing pressure.

The fact that the search for a government is so difficult is also due to the unusual situation in France. In recent decades, there has almost always been a clear government majority for one of the political camps – due to the former strength of the mainstream parties and the majority voting system.

Coalitions are therefore not part of the political culture. And the parties, which often pursue a confrontational course in parliament, find it extremely difficult to think about pulling together despite their different positions. But this will be necessary, because none of the camps received an absolute majority in the election.

The core of the impetus in the search for a government is above all the sometimes populist left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI). LFI is part of the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, which came in first in the election and has insisted on its claim to government ever since. However, all other camps are threatening to topple such a government with a vote of no confidence – because of LFI.

It is precisely for this reason that Macron has clearly rejected the left’s plan. The alliance then accused him of “a disgrace”, “an illiberal drift” and “a denial of democracy”. It feels cheated of its election victory and fears that Macron simply wants to continue his policies – election outcome or not.

Macron, on the other hand, sees himself as head of state and as a guarantor of the stability of the institutions. Appointing a head of government who will be overthrown anyway is out of the question for him. He probably sees his exploratory talks as an attempt to find a solution to the complicated situation in which neither camp can carry on as usual on its own. The Élysée repeatedly stresses that Macron is merely an arbitrator here.

But the left sees the president, who has implemented his own policies with the government until the very end, as a decision-maker – as someone who wants to build a coalition himself instead of handing this task over to a prime minister. LFI is even threatening to initiate impeachment proceedings against Macron.

So how can things continue in France? The conservatives are still not prepared to be part of a government. Macron’s center camp is a good 120 seats short of an absolute majority, the left-wing alliance just under 100. Marine Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists are not an option as partners for the other camps anyway.

The Communists, Socialists, Greens and LFI are still insisting on governing together. But the internal pressure on the Socialists to return to the negotiating table with Macron alone and turn away from LFI has recently increased. Macron could hope to win over the Greens for a coalition with the center – or he could also rely on tolerance from the conservatives.

If all this fails, Macron would have two options: a government of experts or ultimately leaving it to the Prime Minister to find his majorities. In order to do this, however, he would need a personality who is as popular and inoffensive as possible, which would be almost as difficult to find as a coalition.