EU migration analysis: Germany in a risk group

EU asylum reform

EU migration analysis: Germany in a risk group

Germany can probably defend itself against additional demands to admit refugees until at least the end of 2026. A report from Brussels also classifies the Federal Republic as being at risk.

Germany can request that it does not have to accept additional migrants from other member states until the end of 2026 under the new EU solidarity mechanism. According to information from the German Press Agency, this emerges from an analysis by EU Interior Commissioner Magnus Brunner of the so-called solidarity pool, which is intended to relieve the burden on states with high migration pressure as part of the EU asylum reform. Germany can therefore rely on the fact that it is already taking care of a large number of asylum seekers for whom other EU states would actually be responsible.

Other solidarity contributions such as cash or benefits in kind would therefore not be necessary from the German side. Theoretically, these can be provided by EU states that are obliged to provide support and do not want to accept refugees.

In its analysis, the Commission classifies Greece and Cyprus as well as Spain and Italy as countries that are entitled to solidarity from other EU states in the coming year due to high migration pressure. Greece and Cyprus are therefore under pressure due to a disproportionate number of arrivals last year, Spain and Italy due to numerous sea rescues.

Germany, along with countries such as Belgium, France and the Netherlands, is one of the group of countries that could be at risk of coming under high migration pressure in the coming year due to high numbers of arrivals or strain on the reception systems. According to the Commission’s assessment, Austria, Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Croatia are in a severe migration situation. This means that they can apply to be fully or partially exempt from solidarity obligations based on the cumulative burdens of the past five years.

EU Interior Commissioner Magnus Brunner said of the results of the analysis that it was obvious that Germany had already borne a large part of this solidarity before the new asylum pact came into force. The Federal Republic will therefore benefit significantly from the reform of the asylum and migration system – in particular from the new tasks of the member states at the external borders. This included registering new arrivals, conducting security checks and the new border procedure. The latter stipulates that certain migrants could in future be sent to strictly controlled reception centers after crossing the border under prison-like conditions.

Basically, Brunner emphasized that the stricter asylum policy is already having an effect today. “Illegal migration fell by 35 percent last year,” he said.

The report, which has now been presented for the first time, is considered a decisive step in the implementation of the reform of the European Asylum System (CEAS), which also contains a solidarity mechanism to relieve the burden on member states particularly affected by migration. For him, the EU Commission took into account a wide range of key figures – such as how many illegal border crossings, boat rescues or asylum applications a country registers, as well as the economic performance and population of a country.