The Left Populist Party La France Insoumise (LFI), the Greens and the Communists also said that they wanted to bring the Bayrou government to fall. The head of the socialists, Olivier Faure, told the newspaper “Le Monde” that his party would also vote against Bayrou. The socialists do not belong to the government, but they had always supported them.
Faure described it as “unimaginable that the socialists express their trust in the prime minister” because Bayrou “decided to go”. With the question of trust, the government resolves itself. Faure assumed that Bayrou had already “caught the eye of a different stage of his political life”.
Apparently the prime minister himself realistically estimates the opportunities of his project. “If there is a majority, the government is confirmed,” said the center-right politician on Monday at his press conference at the end of the political summer vacation. “If there is no majority, the government falls.” The latter option is currently the probable. If all opposition parties remain closed in their position, they would have together 315 of the 577 votes in the National Assembly and thus a majority against the government.
If so, France’s President Emmanuel Macron would have the next big problem. He would then have to appoint the seventh prime minister in his two terms. It was only in December Bayrous predecessor Michel Barnier, due to a vote of no confidence in the 2024 budget. Barnier was only in office for three months.
Ensemble, the middle camp of President Emmanuel Macron, had lost its relative majority in the early elections last year and had only become the second strongest force behind the left-hand alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (new folk front). This depends on the cooperation with parts of the left – but the two political camps are sometimes far apart.
The new balance of power in the National Assembly has ensured a standstill and a long -lasting government crisis, from which Macron has so far found no way out. If the current government also plunges, Macron would be in front of the next political pile of shards. He could immediately appoint a new prime minister or ask Bayrou to remain in office as head of a transitional government. The alternative would be new elections – however, Macron had already chosen this option last year. The step came as a surprise at the time and ended with a bitter disappointment for the president.
On the Paris stock exchange, Bayrous announced a bad mood. The uncertainty scareed the investors and let the risk premium for French bonds over five basis points to the highest level since mid -June. The CAC-40 index of the leading French shares ended the day with a minus of 1.6 percent.
