Earthquake worry! Why are tremors increasing?

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Lerato Khumalo

While more than a thousand earthquakes of magnitude 4 or more occur in Turkey every year, 20 thousand earthquakes of various sizes are recorded throughout the year. The occurrence of 32 thousand 500 earthquakes across Türkiye in 2024 caused concerns. This increase in the number of earthquakes raises the question: “Should we be worried?” While bringing the question to the agenda; All eyes turned to risky faults that accumulate energy. Earthquake experts stated that energy accumulated in the Bingöl-Yedisu and KAF Marmara segments and made important warnings. Earthquake Expert Prof. Dr. While Hüsnü Can stated that energy has accumulated in the part of the North Anatolian Fault Line passing through the Marmara Sea, “There is also energy accumulation in the region where the North Anatolian Fault and the East Anatolian Fault meet. There is a risk of earthquake at every point in Turkey. “It is very difficult. We should not forget the Aegean Fault. A major earthquake had occurred in Izmir before,” he said.

Civil Engineer Cüneyt Tüzün: “86 thousand 802 people lost their lives in 210 earthquakes in Turkey between 1900 and 2017. 597 thousand 865 houses were severely damaged.”

BEWARE OF YEDİSU!

Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz (Earth scientist) “

“There were normally an average of 25 thousand earthquakes a year in Turkey, but after the February 6 disaster, this number increased to 75 thousand. This number is gradually decreasing, we expect it to decrease further in the future. Currently, Marmara and Bingöl Yedisu regions are experiencing more than 7 earthquakes. has potential. Measurements show that the North Anatolian Fault segment in the Marmara Sea moves by an average of 2 cm per year. “Marmara is pregnant with an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher.”

VACANCY EXPIRED

Prof. Dr. Cenk Yaltırak (Geological Engineer):

“It is normal to have 32,500 earthquakes. Turkey is located in a geography that produces earthquakes by generation. Earthquakes have nothing to do with atmospheric events. If a very large ice mass melts quickly, the earth’s crust may move, but this event will take millions of years to occur. There are seismic gaps in Turkey and they are expiringdu. These will produce earthquakes in 100 years, but it is not possible to predict whether this will happen tomorrow or in the following years with current technology. An earthquake is one thing, earthquake potential means something else. “There is a potential for an earthquake above 7.0 in Marmara.”

Energy accumulated in those areas

“Every area with seismic gaps in Turkey is dangerous. For example, There is a possibility of earthquakes along the line extending from Bingöl Yedisu, Marmara, Antalya Gulf in the Mediterranean, Cyprus to Iskenderun. Seismic gap means that the regions I mentioned have experienced major earthquakes in history and a long time has passed. This means that we live with the fact that an earthquake will occur at any moment. Even though we don’t know the exact time, there is always a risk.

Earthquake worry! Why are tremors increasing? - Picture: 2
Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik: “Earthquakes have been occurring in Istanbul for 20 million years, but have been recorded for the last 2 thousand years. There is a 50 percent probability that one in 200 buildings in Istanbul will be seriously damaged or collapse. Every construction we do must comply with the specifications, all buildings must be overhauled, weak buildings must be rebuilt.” must be done.”

DIFFERENT PREDICTIONS

On the other hand, experts’ predictions regarding the possible Great Marmara Earthquake that will affect Istanbul are as follows…

Prof. Dr. Şerif Barış: “An earthquake of 6.7 or 6.8 magnitude will cause chaos, mayhem, destruction and deaths. It is also sad that the focus is always on Istanbul.”

Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy: “It is possible for an earthquake of magnitude 7.7 to occur in Marmara.”

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan: “The major earthquake that will affect Istanbul will not occur before 2045. It would be surprising if the possible Istanbul earthquake occurs before 2045.”

Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy: “The probability of a 6.5 magnitude earthquake occurring in Istanbul in the coming years is around 2 percent.”,

Prof. Dr. Sinan Özener: “In the historical process, the earthquake in 1509 had a magnitude of 7.4. We have determined that the great earthquake that occurred at that time caused a tsunami in the Sea of ​​Marmara and serious damage to the coastline of Istanbul.”

Prof. Dr. Ziyaddin Çakır: “A new rupture, which will start from where the 1912 earthquake that affected Istanbul ended, may slow down and stop as it moves eastward. This increases the possibility that the Marmara earthquake will be smaller than expected.”

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