But now it is unclear how Trump will deal with this legacy. If relations deteriorate again and the US loses interest in regions in Asia or Africa, China will step into these gaps. And of course that’s what we hope for in Beijing. In addition, Xi Jinping will certainly want to improve his relations with Europe, especially if the future US president questions NATO again. If Trump were to force Ukraine to make peace with Russia, Xi Jinping, of all people, could benefit from it. Chinese support for Putin is currently the main point of conflict between China and many European countries.
Trump could play into Xi’s hands in the medium term when it comes to geopolitical issues. Because if China wants to become the leading superpower, it needs even more international support. Especially since Trump’s statements during the election campaign about US relations with Taiwan certainly made the Chinese leadership sit up and take notice.
“Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything,” the Republican said. He also accused the island republic of stealing from the US chip industry.
Such statements have led some China experts to believe that Trump will seek to strike some sort of deal with Taiwan in exchange for further U.S. support. Taiwan’s military spending is currently around 2.6 percent of gross domestic product; Trump could ask the island to increase that amount. Although the future US president may negotiate hard, it is unlikely that he will actually abandon his support for Taiwan. In interviews, he remained true to the long-standing U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity when asked about whether the U.S. military would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack or blockade. “I wouldn’t have to because (Chinese President Xi Jinping) respects me and he knows I’m fucking crazy,” Trump said in a Wall Street Journal interview in October when asked if he would defend Taiwan.
Accordingly, the future president apparently realizes that his unpredictability could deter China. That is why there is a risk of an escalation in trade relations in the first few months of his term in office. Because Trump’s China hawks are already sharpening their claws.
