Concerns about military escalation in the Middle East are growing

Iran and Israel are exchanging threats and a regional conflagration seems to be approaching. Diplomats are trying to de-escalate the situation. Can a serious escalation still be averted?

With their latest threats, Israel and Iran are stoking fears that a major war could soon break out in the Middle East – with consequences extending far beyond the region. The seven major western industrial nations (G7) are urgently urging de-escalation, but the fronts between the rival leaderships in Tehran and Jerusalem appear to have hardened. In view of an announced Iranian retaliatory attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted with his military and intelligence chiefs. So far, “no definitive picture” has emerged about the attacks to be expected, reported the Israeli television station Channel 12. According to other reports, Iran could possibly strike as early as Monday.

The most dangerous crisis in the Middle East for decades was triggered by the deadly attacks on two high-ranking targets of the Israeli security apparatus last week. On Wednesday night, an explosion in the room of an Iranian government guesthouse in Tehran killed the foreign chief of the Islamist Hamas, Ismail Haniya. A few hours earlier, an air strike had killed the high-ranking Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

Israel claimed responsibility for the attack on Shukr, but there have been no official statements of this kind from Jerusalem regarding the attack on Haniya. Iran and its ally Hamas hold the Jewish state responsible in both cases.

The leadership in Tehran and the Shiite militia Hezbollah, which it supports, threatened Israel with massive retaliation for the attacks. Netanyahu’s government warned of severe consequences in this case. There are fears of a regional conflagration if – as announced by Tehran – the militias in the region allied with Iran also get involved. In addition to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, these include the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria.

According to a newspaper report, Arab diplomats appeared in Tehran and called for the most measured response possible to the attacks. However, the Iranian leadership told the emissaries that it was indifferent to whether the planned retaliatory strike triggered a war, reported the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the content of the talks.

Iran’s President Massoud Peseschkian received Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi and told him in connection with the killing of Haniya: “This cowardly act was a violation of all international laws and a great mistake by the Zionists (Israel) that will not go unanswered.” His government wants peace and stability in the region, but the prerequisite for this is “an end to Israeli crimes, especially in Gaza,” Peseschkian was quoted as saying by the presidential office.

In a joint video conference, the G7 foreign ministers called on all parties to the conflict to exercise the greatest possible restraint in order to prevent further escalation. The current situation requires dialogue and moderation, said Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. His country currently holds the G7 presidency and organized the conference of the group, which Germany is also a member of, which was called at short notice.

It remains unclear when the threatened retaliatory strike could take place. Statements from Tehran and Hezbollah repeatedly referred to the “next few days”. The news portal “Axios” reported, citing the assessments of three American and Israeli government officials, that Iran could attack as early as Monday. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also told his colleagues this in the G7 video conference and spoke of the next 24 to 48 hours as the time frame.

According to the White House, US President Joe Biden will hold a meeting with his security advisers on the situation in the Middle East on Monday, which Vice President Kamala Harris will also attend. Beforehand, Biden will speak with Jordanian King Abullah II.

Israel can count on the support of the United States and probably other allies when it comes to intercepting rockets, cruise missiles and drones from Iran and its proxy groups with modern defense systems.