analysis
Care: Planned savings measures fall short
09/02/2026 – 2:02 p.mReading time: 2 minutes
The federal government plans to revise the care classification. But the savings effect could be significantly smaller than expected, warns a new study.
The part of the Federal Government Planned cost-cutting measures in care fall short. The expected billion-dollar holes in statutory nursing care insurance cannot be filled with this. This is the result of an analysis published on Wednesday by the AOK Scientific Institute (WIdo).
Savings could be 50 percent lower
But according to the WIdo analysis, the savings could be up to 50 percent lower. For its analysis, WIdo used the data of 1.1 million AOK insured people who were assessed for the first time in 2024 or applied for an upgrade in their level of care. It became apparent that the assessors often assessed those affected in such a way that they were narrowly classified into the higher level of care. In this context, the WIdo speaks of a “bunching effect” or agglomeration effect.
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The WIdo assumes that this “bunching effect” would also be observed if the threshold values were increased. In other words: Despite stricter values, the experts will evaluate those affected in such a way that they are still classified as having a higher level of care. This is suggested by experiences from other countries.
In addition, the new assessment system creates an incentive for those affected to prefer a care classification in order to be assessed according to the more generous limits. A measure that the social association VdK is currently advising. “As a result, spending on social care insurance could even increase in the short term,” warns the WIdo.
