But Beijing has an advantage that India can hardly compensate for: economic size. Even Indian refineries occasionally use the renminbi when purchasing Russian oil. China therefore does not necessarily have to enforce its ideas in final declarations. Its economic strength is already changing international payment transactions. This is also one reason for Beijing’s growing influence within the Brics group.
Putin’s leeway is shrinking
And Putin? Russia undoubtedly remains an important player. India buys large quantities of Russian oil and has had close relations with Moscow for decades, including in the defense sector. For China, Russia is an important political and economic partner.
But the war against Ukraine has changed Putin’s position. It ties up Russian resources and increases Moscow’s dependence on China. This makes the relationship between the two states more asymmetrical. Beijing has significantly more economic leeway compared to the Kremlin than the other way around.
The situation is also changing militarily. Russia is concentrating its forces on Europe and keeping significantly fewer troops on its long border with China. This creates additional freedom for Beijing to concentrate forces on other areas of conflict.
India is watching this development with concern. Russia has long been valuable to New Delhi because Moscow maintained good relations with India and China. The more closely the Kremlin is tied to Beijing, the less Russia can balance within this triangle. So Putin remains important. But he is less and less setting the pace within the Brics alone.
Who speaks for the Global South?
Furthermore, the Brics summit in India also raises a larger question. Who can credibly speak for those states that demand more influence in the international order but do not want to completely subordinate themselves to either Washington or Beijing?
China has the stronger means of power for this. Chinese companies, loans and infrastructure projects reach far into Africa, Latin America and Asia. Beijing has the larger one economicsmore technological weight and stronger economic networks.
India has no comparable instrument of power to counter this. New Delhi offers something different: strategic agility. Modi cooperates with Western states, sticks to Russia and at the same time seeks compromise with China. This can be attractive for countries that want to avoid forming a new bloc. But this model only works as long as India has enough of its own weight.
