Political right consolidates its position in Brazil
Felipe Nunes, director of the polling institute Quaest, gave a revealing number in an interview with “O Globo”: “In 2002, 25 percent of voters did not know whether they were left, right or center. Today it is only four percent.” In the past two decades or so, a “right-wing identity” has grown that never existed before – no longer defined by economic interests, but by values. So this is not a pure import from Washington. This is a Brazilian development.
Added to this was what Nunes describes as a structural failure of the Lula government: an “inability to create a perception of prosperity in society” and a campaign that was not aimed “at winning independent voters, but rather at retaining his core electorate.” Lula was no longer able to convince already dissatisfied parts of the electorate.
A corruption scandal took care of the rest: allegations of additional payments to judges’ families and the provision of private jets by Daniel Vorcaro, the owner of the financial institution Banco Master, damaged the Supreme Court of all places – the institution on which Lula’s legitimacy was based. The president’s narrative in this election campaign was based on a contradiction: Lula stood for the democratic order, Bolsonaros for the coup attempt of 2022. For this, the Supreme Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison – so as an institution he was the most important symbol against the Bolsonaros.
What was crucial, however, was how voters viewed the scandal: According to Quaest director Nunes, Brazilians did not attribute the crisis to Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro personally, but to the system as a whole. And it was precisely this finding that fueled the desire for change, from which the challenger benefited.
So far, the winner of the first round has always taken the presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro ultimately received 56.1 million votes – more than his father Jair received in each of his two election campaigns. So Trump didn’t win this game because his strategy worked. He won because the forces against him were not strong enough. This difference will be geopolitically crucial.
