According to the UN, Earth is heading for 2.8 degrees of warming

climate

According to the UN, Earth is heading for 2.8 degrees of warming

Despite small progress, global climate protection is not enough to significantly slow down global warming, according to the United Nations. Many countries have not done their homework.

According to the United Nations, with current global climate policy, the earth is heading for 2.8 degrees of warming by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times. The UN Environment Program (UNEP) based in Nairobi said it is very likely that the internationally agreed 1.5 degree target will be exceeded within the next decade. The global community actually wants to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees in order to avert the worst consequences of climate change.

Compared to the 3.1 degrees forecast last year, the calculation in this year’s UN report is slightly better. If one assumes that states implement everything they have set out to do in their national climate protection plans, the calculation suggests that 2.3 to 2.5 degrees of warming would be expected by the end of the century. Last year this forecast was 2.6 to 2.8 degrees.

However, methodological changes are responsible for 0.1 degree of improvement, explains UNEP. The US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement will have a negative impact of 0.1 degrees.

“This is progress – but not nearly enough,” criticizes UN Secretary General António Guterres. With the current plans, the signs would still point to “climate collapse”.

In order to maintain the 1.5 degrees, emissions would have to be reduced by 55 percent in the next ten years compared to 2019 – to at least stay below two degrees by 35 percent. In fact, full implementation of all national climate plans announced for 2035 would only result in a reduction of around 15 percent. And even this number is subject to reservations due to the US withdrawal.

The hottest year to date, 2024, has already broken the 1.5 degree mark – the target is only officially missed on a multi-year average. However, the United Nations sees the exceedance as hardly avoidable. “Decisive, timely reductions in emissions can delay the onset of exceedance, but not completely prevent it,” the authors write. “The big task before us is to keep this exceedance temporary and minimal,” so that a return to 1.5 degrees remains within the realm of possibility.

Guterres warns: “Any phase in which the targets are exceeded will inevitably have dramatic consequences – with loss of life, uprooted communities and setbacks in development.”

But there is also a ray of hope: since the start of the Paris Climate Agreement ten years ago, the annual warming forecast has decreased; at that time, it was assumed to be between 3 and 3.5 degrees.

The authors emphasize that the technologies that can rapidly reduce emissions are available. “The development of wind and solar energy is booming, driving down costs. This means the international community can accelerate its climate action – if it chooses to do so.”