In the analysis published on the Central Bank’s blog page of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), it is stated that the New Tenant Rent Index (YKKI), which started to be published by the CBRT, is an important indicator not only in terms of monitoring the dynamics of the housing rental market, but also in terms of producing leading signals regarding the inflation outlook of the rent item. “The delay finding underlines the difference between official rent inflation and current (fair) rent developments.” statements were included.
The analysis titled “A New Indicator for Rents: New Tenant Rent Index” prepared by Chief Expert Özgül Atılgan Ayanoğlu, Expert Ezgi Deryol, Manager Erdi Kızılkaya and Senior Expert Duygu Konukçu Çelik at the CBRT’s General Directorate of Data Governance and Statistics was published on the bank’s blog page, the Center’s Journal.
In the analysis stated that the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) calculated and shared with the public the “Real Rent Index Paid by the Tenant” as a sub-item of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it was reported that this index follows the rental price of the ‘same house’ in accordance with the CPI methodology and reflects the price changes in new rents with a delay due to the infrequent change of tenants in houses.
In other words, the analysis emphasized that since the price changes in rental housing are reflected on the current tenants late, the TÜİK Real Rent Index follows the current price developments in the rental housing market with a delay, and the following statements were included:
“In Türkiye, there are no official statistics that directly reflect the current change in housing rental values. In this context, the CBRT created an index called YKKE, published at a monthly frequency, using the rental valuations in the valuation reports received from banks to calculate the Housing Price Index (KPI). YKKE, which reflects the current rental developments in the rental housing market, and unit rents of houses valued on a provincial basis began to be published on February 17, 2026.”
RENTAL VALUES PROVIDED WITHIN THE SCOPE OF KPI STUDIES ARE USED AS DATA SOURCE FOR THE INDEX
It was reported that in the analysis, rental values obtained within the scope of KPI studies were used as the data source for the index.
The analysis stated that these values were determined by appraisers and showed the price at which the house could be rented in the relevant period, and the following information was included:
“In calculating the index, the hedonic regression method is used to separate the quality effect. Regressions are run in a total of 19 layers, including 13 level-2 regions and 6 level-1 regions, according to the Statistical Territorial Units Classification (NUTS). The indexes obtained on a layer basis are weighted with the number of households and average housing values of the previous year to obtain YKKI for Turkey in general.”
In the analysis, it was stated that the annual increases in the index accelerated from the last quarter of 2021 and reached peak levels in the second half of 2022. In the following period, it was observed that the rate of increase in housing rents slowed down in three major provinces, especially Istanbul, and that in the second quarter of 2023, Ankara began to differentiate significantly from the other two major provinces, and this separation became more evident in the third quarter of the same year.
In the analysis, “We evaluate that the intense migration of the region following the earthquake disaster in February 2023 is an important factor in this divergence. It is seen that the annual increase rates have started to decrease as of the last quarter of 2023, with the effect of the tightening in monetary policy, and the annual increases in YKKI throughout Turkey and in three major provinces have fallen below 40 percent as of January 2026.” statements were included.
YKPI, AS IN OTHER COUNTRY EXAMPLES, DIFFERENT FROM THE RENT SERIES, WHICH IS A SUB-ITEM OF CPI.
It was stated in the analysis that since YKKI is calculated based on the rents that new tenants will be exposed to, the increases or decreases in rents reflect the changes in rents earlier than the TURKSTAT Real Rent Index, therefore, by definition, YKKI differs from the rent series, which is a sub-item of the CPI, as in other country examples.
In the analysis, it was reported that it took a long time for the rapid increase in YKKE, especially at the end of 2021, to be reflected in the TÜİK Real Rent Index.
The analysis emphasized that it was evaluated that the restrictions during the pandemic period reduced the frequency of relocation of existing tenants and the limitation of the rent increase rate for existing tenants to 25 percent in the following period was effective in the delay of the reflection, and the following was noted:
“As of the end of 2023, the YKKI increase rate begins to decline significantly. We see that this slowdown trend seen in the YKKI has started to be reflected in the TÜİK Real Rent Index as of the second quarter of 2024, but the Real Rent Index is still significantly above the YKKE. As of January 2026, the annual increase rate of the YKKI has decreased to 34.2 percent, while the TÜİK Real Rent Index is at the level of 56.6 percent. This “The situation indicates that the decline in the rate of increase in the Real Rent Index, a sub-item of the CPI, will continue in the coming period. Along with the YKKI, the CBRT has started to publish the unit rents of the houses evaluated for Turkey in general and for the provinces with sufficient data on a quarterly basis.”
According to the results, in the last quarter of 2025, the median rental value of a 100 square meter house was calculated as approximately 22 thousand liras for Turkey in general, 37 thousand liras for Istanbul, 21 thousand liras for Ankara and 25 thousand liras for Izmir. The following evaluations were made:
“As a result, YKKI, which started to be published by the CBRT, is an important indicator not only in terms of monitoring the dynamics of the housing rental market, but also in terms of producing leading signals about the inflation outlook of the rent item. The delay finding underlines the difference between official rent inflation and current (fair) rent developments. In this context, the increase rates in current rents have fallen to lower levels compared to the official index, in the rent item, which will have a significant weight in consumer inflation in the coming period. “It implies that the downward movement will continue. This situation is consistent with the CBRT’s prediction that the year-end rent inflation will be in the range of 30-36 percent in the relevant box study within the scope of the first Inflation Report of the year.”
YKKI AND TURKSTAT REAL RENTAL INDEX SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS TWO COMPLEMENTARY INDICES.
In the analysis, for these reasons, considering the methodological differences between YKKI and TURKSTAT Real Rent Index, it is stated that these two indicators should not be considered as substitutes for each other, but as two complementary indices that allow to evaluate both the current level and possible direction of inflation together. “In addition, more concrete data is presented regarding the unit rents and the level of housing rents that have started to be published, allowing a better analysis of regional differences in housing rents.” It was said.
