Midterms 2026: Will the next escalation in Iran come after the US election?

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Lerato Khumalo

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Ejal Zamir: The Israeli army chief apparently did not agree with an attack on Iran before the parliamentary elections. (Archive photo) (Source: IDF/imago)

There are also signs in the USA that a new joint attack with Israel is being planned: at the beginning of last week, among others, the US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth traveled to Israel for talks with Netanyahu. Several US media outlets subsequently reported that the US military was preparing for new attacks. Targets were selected, including parts of the Iranian energy infrastructure.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that the US government had told the Gulf states that they should prepare for a short, intense attack. Appropriate preparatory measures are said to have already been taken: According to the report, another Patriot air defense system is on its way to the Middle East. Ammunition stocks have been replenished and fighter jets and bombers are operational again. At the beginning of November, more than 20 American warships would be ready for action in the region.

In recent months, Trump has repeatedly spoken about ending the war as quickly as possible. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz The prices for diesel and gasoline have also risen sharply in the USA. Trump is currently promising at many campaign events that prices will soon fall again once the war is over.

Senator calls plans “crazy”

The attack plans are apparently so concrete that they have already been submitted to Congress. The Democratic Senator from Connecticut, Chris Murphy, wrote on Platform X on Thursday that he had been informed of such plans. Murphy, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, called the plans “crazy”. They would also likely lead to the “destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.” The politician did not become more specific, but referred to numerous media reports that are circulating.

Similar to Netanyahu, whose election has already taken place, the US President also has to fear a poor result in the midterm elections next Tuesday. Traditionally, the president’s party has to expect losses in congressional elections halfway through his term in office. According to polls, Trump’s Republicans are at risk of losing their majority in the House of Representatives. The majority in the Senate could also be lost.

However, as in the case of Netanyahu, the result has no impact on Trump’s foreign policy skills. The president could also try to cover up a weak result with military escalation.

Vance explores negotiated solution

However, Trump is said not to have decided on an attack yet. It is said that the US government has not yet written off a negotiated solution. US Vice President JD Vance is said to have written to Mohsen Resai, Secretary General of the Iranian Security Council. Vance used this to explore whether a military strike could still be prevented.

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