The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply increased by approximately 4 million 100 thousand barrels per day in June compared to the previous month, reaching 98 million 760 thousand barrels, as the resumption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz supported the partial recovery in production in the Gulf.
According to the IEA’s Oil Market Report, despite the increase in supply in June, global oil production remained approximately 9 million 400 thousand barrels per day below the level before the US/Israel-Iran War.
According to the report, oil supply from the Gulf increased by approximately 3 million 500 thousand barrels per day in June compared to the previous month, as the Gulf countries partially restarted production following the framework agreement reached between the USA and Iran. However, while the oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz was interrupted from time to time due to security concerns and the need for US navy escort, regional oil supply remained approximately 11 million 400 thousand barrels per day below the pre-war level.
During this period, the production of the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries, increased by approximately 2 million 450 thousand barrels per day, reaching 38 million 390 thousand barrels. The majority of this increase was provided by Saudi Arabia with approximately 900 thousand barrels per day, and Kuwait with approximately 630 thousand barrels per day.
While the supply of countries outside the OPEC + group increased by approximately 1 million 630 thousand barrels per day to 60 million 370 thousand barrels, more than half of this increase, with approximately 940 thousand barrels per day, originated from the United Arab Emirates.
Thus, global oil supply increased by approximately 4 million 100 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month in June, reaching 98 million 760 thousand barrels.
SUPPLY FORECAST FOR THIS YEAR HAS INCREASED BUT RISK CONTINUES
According to the report, if oil transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz continue to improve, global oil supply is expected to be at an average of 102 million 600 thousand barrels per day this year.
While this level indicates a decrease of approximately 3 million 700 thousand barrels per day compared to last year, it was revised upwards by 210 thousand barrels per day compared to the estimate in the report published last month. However, the report stated that risks to this prediction continue as negotiations regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz continue and the attacks continue.
It was estimated that global oil production would increase by approximately 7 million 500 thousand barrels per day in 2027, reaching 110 million 100 thousand barrels.
DEMAND FORECAST FOR THIS YEAR HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS
The IEA revised its global oil demand forecast upwards by 70 thousand barrels per day compared to its previous forecast, due to stronger-than-expected deliveries in the second quarter.
Accordingly, global oil demand is expected to decrease by approximately 1 million barrels per day this year compared to last year, falling to 103 million 460 thousand barrels. It is predicted that this will be the first annual demand decline since 2020, when the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic were felt most intensely.
According to the report, global oil demand decreased by 5 million 300 thousand barrels per day on an annual basis in May, falling to 97 million 900 thousand barrels per day, the lowest level of 2026. However, following the agreement reached between the USA and Iran in mid-June, demand began to recover as oil exports increased through the Strait of Hormuz and delayed demand in Asia came into play. Low oil prices and the improvement in the economic outlook were also among the factors that supported oil consumption.
While the IEA maintained its daily demand increase forecast of approximately 2 million barrels for 2027, it predicted that global oil demand would reach 105 million 470 thousand barrels.
In addition, it was estimated that the average annual demand increase in the 2025-2027 period would remain below historical trends at 480 thousand barrels per day.
