Above all, such an attack would have a major propaganda effect. Moscow knows full well that an attack on a NATO border region would be immediately met with a counterattack on Russian territory. However, these countries are already psychologically prepared for an attack. On the other hand, he could attack Germany with hybrid means without this already being an open war and thus avoid a counter reaction from NATO.
“The Kremlin sees Germany as Russia’s main enemy, so an attack on this country would be more justified from the perspective of Russian megalomania than an attack on Narva or the Suwałki region. This is all the more true since there is no particular willingness in Germany to counter the Russian threat,” said Koort. He sees little support among the German population for increasing the Bundeswehr to 400,000 soldiers. This currently leaves 180,000 soldiers who have to defend a nation of 80 million people – and an important NATO logistics location.
The security expert also sees Germany as politically close to Russia. These are the effects of the policies of Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder. Even Chancellor Merz speaks of dialogue, said Koort. And the AfD is publicly calling for an agreement with Putin. This prepares the ground for a successful Russian offensive.
“Germany is the retreat area for the NATO frontline states bordering Russia. Without a prior attack on this retreat area, an attack on Estonia or the Suwałki Gap has no chance of success,” said Koort. Putin wouldn’t even have to use missiles. Hybrid attacks would not be open war, but could be disastrous, both politically and in terms of public opinion. While countries like Estonia expect Russian attacks at any time, Germany is not mentally prepared. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s turning point was primarily rhetoric.
Even recent arrests of Russian agents in Germany could not prevent the fact that a Russian network has been built up over decades. “I believe that there are currently thousands of agents operating at various levels of the state who, at the right moment, could completely paralyze its functioning,” said Koort. This is also because there is still something like GDR nostalgia in the East. “I would like to give just one example: After reunification, officers in the East German army – unless they were dismissed from the military – were demoted en masse by at least one rank and, in the case of higher-ranking officers, by several ranks.”
