With regard to a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, there are two possible interpretations. There is a reassuring interpretation: If the leadership of the People’s Liberation Army is shaky, if posts are vacant, then operational readiness will decrease in the short term. Taiwan could breathe easy.
And there is the more dangerous reading – it seems particularly plausible if you know Xi’s system: a frightened army does not contradict. She gives the boss what he wants to hear. If Xi removes the last “but-sayer,” only “yes-sayers” will remain.
Tristan Tang also told “Spiegel”: The risk of a war in Taiwan is increasing. Because future commanders would want to fulfill Xi’s requirements at all costs – even out of self-preservation.
And another factor increases the risk: Beijing could demonstrate external strength in order to mask internal turmoil. China expert Lyle Morris from the Asia Society Policy Institute told Business Insider that one could see an increase in large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan that Beijing would use to cover up unrest internally. China has also carried out large-scale exercises after previous purges – a familiar pattern.
With the purges, Xi is cementing his power over the military. He makes it clear that the army is the armed wing of the party – and in his interpretation the party is himself. But the Chinese president is risking something that is crucial to the attack on Taiwan: professionalism. An army that has to be loyal above all else can quickly become operationally worse. At the same time, an army that only looks at political will can more easily slide into a risky operation because no one will slow down in time.
