While 2024 was a difficult year for the real estate sector, the sector started to compensate for the decline in the first eight months of the year due to high loan interest rates in the last quarter. The recovery in the housing sector, which started in August, continues unabated. The Housing Price Index prepared by the Central Bank revealed that there were significant decreases in housing prices towards the end of the year, which remained stable throughout the year. Now all eyes are on the expectations for 2025. Industry representatives said that the increase in housing sales at the end of the year will continue in the first quarter of 2025, and this will bring significant price increases in the second six months of next year.
ECONOMY CLASS INCREASED
Evaluating 2024, real estate expert Rıdvan Akgün gave the following information: “As of September-October, sales accelerated significantly and title deed offices became active. Incomes obtained by citizens from Exchange-Protected Deposit accounts and changes in the tax legislation were effective in the increase. Recently, we have seen a rapid increase in residences between 2 and 5 million TL. There is a slight increase of around 8 million TL. “Sales of apartments over 10 million TL are 10 percent of all sales.”
SALES WILL INCREASE
Emphasizing that prices in the real estate sector have been stagnant for nearly two years, Akgün said, “Fear of price increases also directed people to housing. Now we think that sales will increase until the end of the year. It seems that just as prices will increase, there will also be an increase in quality housing. “We see this in the market,” he said.
OLD HOUSES WILL INCREASE
Stating that they foresee a 25 percent increase in prices in the first quarter of 2025, Akgün said: “The acceleration of sales and the attractiveness of housing loan interest rates will bring a 35 percent increase in prices in the first 6 months. “Increasing demand will carry the price increase to 50 percent in the second 6-month period.”
“New houses built right next to a house with a price of around 3 million TL in the same region are sold for 9, 10 million TL. High costs cause an increase in prices. Citizens who cannot afford to buy new houses will rush into old houses. For this reason, 2 I predict that the price increase in second-hand houses will catch up with new houses. There may be stagnation in the markets in 2025. However, we will see that this is not valid for the housing sector. People have to solve their housing problems.”
Ali Güvenç Kiraz commented:
“INCREASE DEPENDS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE”
Real estate expert Ali Güvenç Kiraz stated that the sales in the last quarter of 2024 do not actually reflect the real sales rates and shared the following predictions for 2025:
“The discourse in the market that interest rates will decrease after September 2024 partially affected the sales. However, there are no sales at the desired level. Because the prices are too high. If there is an impression that the foreign exchange rate will increase in 2025, there will be no increase in house sales. However, if interest rates start to fall, it may have some impact. When we look, we see two types of markets. Sales are made below a certain value. The luxury market is also active. The middle segment market is very stagnant. Expectations are not met.”
What do the numbers say?
“3 metropolitan cities are ahead”
According to the figures announced by TÜİK in the last quarter, housing sales across Turkey increased by 76.1 percent in October compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 165 thousand 138. While the provinces with the highest number of house sales were Istanbul with 24 thousand 812, Ankara with 15 thousand 257 and Izmir with 8 thousand 658, the provinces with the lowest number were Hakkari with 76, Bayburt with 97 and Ardahan with 112, respectively.
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