The picture of destruction that will emerge due to the possible Great Marmara Earthquake continues to cause concern. While the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change has completed the risk analyses in 39 districts regarding the possible great earthquake that will affect Istanbul, it has been determined that 600 thousand houses are at risk in the megacity. Experts who assess that the picture is quite grave are of the opinion that the distance covered since the August 17, 1999 Gölcük Earthquake is insufficient. On the other hand, as a result of the latest measurements, it has been determined that there is a risk of collapse in 1,556 buildings in Istanbul.
LANDSLIDE RISK PLACES
Although it is unknown how the city will resist an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater, the Earthquake Master Plan is considered the most important study showing the x-ray of the megacity. While the 1,344-page Master Plan was prepared by dozens of experts from Boğaziçi University, Yıldız Technical University, METU and ITU, very few of the warnings made over the years have been implemented. The plan states that Florya, Menekşe, Küçükçekmece, Avcılar, Gürpınar and Büyükçekmece, located in the southwest of Istanbul, are dangerous places in terms of landslide risk; It is stated that the coastline of approximately 25 kilometers long and 250 meters wide from Moda Cape to the Kartal Train Station has been determined as a liquefaction area.
SİŞLİ AND BEŞİKTAŞ WARNING!
In the Master Plan, it is stated that a large part of the central districts such as Beşiktaş and Şişli consist of attached houses and that these areas host a dense population, and that “Due to the narrowness of the roads, there is a risk of access in case the buildings collapse and in case the floor alignments of the attached buildings do not coincide in sloping areas, there is a risk of serious damage to the buildings.”
IT WILL DEMOLISH BY ITSELF
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İhsan Karagöz from Istanbul Beykent University Civil Engineering Department is one of the experts who warned that ‘The ‘Building Inspection System’ in Turkey should also be inspected very strictly.’ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Karagöz’s findings are as follows: “‘There are currently 400 thousand buildings in Istanbul that will collapse on their own. There are 1 million 200 thousand buildings. 800 thousand of these buildings were built before the August 17 earthquake. “It was built with bad concrete and plain iron. There was no inspection, sea sand was used. No ground survey was done. There have been approximately 170 thousand applications since 1999. 35 thousand of them were inspected in the last 5 years.”
200 THOUSAND BUILDINGS ARE AT RISK
Ali Kurt, General Manager of KİPTAŞ, a subsidiary of IMM, is one of the names that draws attention to the seriousness of the situation: “It has been determined that 1,556 buildings have a building stock that would collapse if you touched them. Much more than that.” “We estimate that there are buildings that we call Class E, meaning they are at risk of collapsing at any moment. According to current studies, approximately 200,000 buildings are at risk of collapsing at any moment.”
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