USA and Azerbaijan suspect Russian hit on jet

Plane crash

USA and Azerbaijan suspect Russian hit on jet

The investigation into the causes of the crash of a passenger plane in Kazakhstan is ongoing. The case brings back memories of a tragedy in eastern Ukraine ten years ago.

Like Azerbaijan, the USA does not rule out a missed Russian anti-aircraft fire as the cause of the crash of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in Kazakhstan. According to a US government representative, initial indications point to a shoot-down, reported by CNN and ABC News, among others. If initial indications are confirmed, it is conceivable that poorly trained Russian units may have mistaken the target when defending against Ukrainian drones, the official said.

The crash near the Kazakh city of Aktau on the Caspian Sea on Wednesday killed 38 of 67 people on board. 29 people survived, many of them seriously injured. The Embraer 190 aircraft from Azerbaijan Airlines was actually supposed to fly from the capital Baku to Grozny in the Russian republic of Chechnya. That morning, Russian air defense was deployed in several regions in the North Caucasus to combat drones from Ukraine.

Military bloggers from Russia, as well as Ukrainian representatives, pointed out the possibility of damage to the machine by Russian anti-aircraft defense at an early stage. Internet aircraft trackers such as Flightradar24 reported that GPS data on the plane’s exact position over Russia had been disrupted. Images from the rear of the wreckage showed small holes that look like impacts from fragments of anti-aircraft missiles.

In an initial reaction, the Kremlin warned against premature speculation. On Thursday afternoon, however, the Azerbaijani leadership widely spread the suspicion that the plane had been hit by a Russian Panzer-S anti-aircraft missile. Citing unnamed government officials in Baku, local and international media reported that the plane was damaged on its approach to Grozny.

There was particular outrage in Azerbaijan when the plane was allegedly denied an emergency landing at nearby Russian airports citing bad weather. The pilots had to maneuver the almost impossible-to-steer machine across the Caspian Sea to Aktau. The height and speed fluctuated considerably. The plane crashed while attempting to land in Aktau.

Seven more injured survivors were flown to Baku on Thursday by an Azerbaijani civil protection aircraft. A plane had already brought several surviving and dead victims back home to Azerbaijan.

Israeli airline El Al canceled all flights between Tel Aviv and Moscow this week. The airline said the reason was “developments in Russian airspace”. They will reassess the situation next week and decide whether flights will resume.

Russian state media did not report on the massive allegations against the belligerent country. President Vladimir Putin gave a brief press conference after a summit of the Eurasian Economic Union near St. Petersburg, but said nothing about the plane crash.

If the version of a fatal miss by Russian anti-aircraft defenses is confirmed, it would be the second case since 2014. At that time, the Ukrainian army was fighting a covert Russian military operation in the east of the country, disguised as a separatist uprising. On July 17, 2014, a Russian Buk anti-aircraft system accidentally shot down a Malaysia Airlines Boeing flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur over eastern Ukraine. 289 people were killed.

To this day, Moscow denies any responsibility for the tragedy and speaks of Western insinuation. Journalistic research and investigations by the Dutch judiciary have clearly proven the route of the Buk system from Russia to the Ukrainian conflict area and back. Three Russian officials were sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment by a court in the Netherlands in 2022.