While a cautious course stands out in the global markets, where transaction volume is low due to the Christmas holiday, today all eyes in the country are on the last monetary policy decision of the year by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
While there were no transactions in many stock exchanges yesterday, transactions will continue in some stock exchanges, especially the New York Stock Exchange, today.
Analysts noted that transaction volume is expected to remain at low levels throughout the week due to the Christmas holiday.
Analysts stated that uncertainties in pricing regarding the policies that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow next year continue to be one of the main agenda items of investors, and that the policies to be followed after the inauguration of Donald Trump, who was elected the 47th president of the USA, and the signals to be received from macroeconomic data are also expected to have an impact on pricing. he said.
The ounce price of gold increased by 0.4 percent in transactions in Asia after the Christmas holiday and is traded at $2,627.
While the US 10-year treasury bond interest increased to 4.62 percent, the dollar index stabilized at 108.2, with a 0.1 percent decrease compared to the previous closing.
The barrel price of Brent oil is trading at $73.2, with a horizontal trend after the holiday.
Index futures contracts on the New York Stock Exchange are mixed on the new day.
There will be no transactions on European stock exchanges today, as was the case yesterday.
While a positive trend stood out in Asian stock markets, excluding South Korea, after the Christmas holiday, analysts stated that liquidity in the markets was at low levels.
While a positive trend is observed in Japan, led by automotive stocks, these gains support the risk appetite in the country’s share markets.
Following the news flow that Japan’s major automotive companies have decided to merge in order to increase efficiency, Mitsubishi shares increased by approximately 7.4 percent, Toyota Motor shares by 6.1 percent, Nissan shares by 5.5 percent, Mazda shares by 4.6 percent, and Honda shares by 4.6 percent. 4.2 and Subaru shares rose 3 percent.
On the other hand, China and Japan agreed on a dialogue mechanism where security issues between the two countries will be discussed.
According to the statement made by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japanese Foreign Minister Ivaya Takeshi met with his counterpart Wang Yi and Prime Minister Li Jiang during his visit to China.
Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 1.4 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.2 percent, while the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 0.4 percent.
While Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index, which moved in an upward trend domestically yesterday, closed the day at 9,916.22 points, gaining 2.52 percent in value. Today, the CBRT’s interest rate decision is in the focus of investors.
Economists participating in AA Finance’s expectations survey expect the CBRT to reduce the policy rate by 150 basis points to 48.50 percent in December.
The average of economists’ end-2025 policy rate expectations was 29.50 percent.
On the other hand, the CBRT published the 2025 Monetary Policy yesterday, which serves as a road map for the monetary policy to be followed next year.
Accordingly, the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold 8 meetings in 2025 within the framework of the calendar to be announced.
The silent period before the MPC meeting will cover a period of 3 business days and no external communication regarding monetary policy will be made during this period.
In addition, the CBRT stated that the announcements shared with the public regarding monetary policy, macroprudential framework, Turkish lira and foreign exchange liquidity management constitute important elements of communication, and announced that it is planned to continue the simplification steps in regulations in 2025 and to terminate the Exchange Rate Protected Deposit (KKM) application within the year.
In addition, in the statement made by the Bank, it was stated that it does not have any target regarding the level of exchange rates and that no foreign exchange buying or selling transactions will be carried out in order to determine the level or direction of exchange rates.
Following the news in question, the December futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 0.6 percent to 11,036 points in the night session.
While Dollar/TL closed at 35.2303 with a 0.2 percent increase yesterday, it is traded at 35.2740 with a 0.1 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that today, in addition to the CBRT’s interest rate decision, sectoral inflation expectations and weekly money and bank statistics will be followed in the country, and weekly unemployment benefit applications in the USA will be followed abroad. Technically, 10,000 and 10,150 points in the BIST 100 index will be resistance, 9,800 and 9,700 points will be followed. He noted that the levels are in support position.
