Above all, Russia wants to restore the relationship with the United States. With a view to Ukraine, after numerous phone calls to Trump, Putin should once again make his view of the origins of the conflict clear in direct conversation and offer a solution – possibly a partially cease -up. However, implementation is considered excluded without Ukrainian participation and approval.
Territorial questions in particular would require an extensive change in the Ukrainian constitution, since all areas – including the Crimea – are listed in this. Changes in the constitution, which are also not permitted in war, require a two -thirds majority in parliament, the top rada. The constitutional court must also agree.
President Selenskyj or the top rada cannot simply decide on a regional waiver. International recognition of Crimea and other Ukrainian areas as a Russian territory, as Moscow demands, is also considered excluded.
However, of course, the US President would have had some pressure against Ukraine, including a complete stop of military support, as was briefly done in March. In addition, the United States could also provide the provision of information data, which would be difficult to replace from the other Ukrainian allies. The Ukrainian army would be practically blind in one fell swoop, the continuation of the war would be more and more difficult for them. Ukraine could threaten the loss of its state area.
In fact, it is always emphasized in Moscow that Russia still has enough resources to continue the war over the years. At the same time, the Kremlin explains not to be interested in it. But what Putin has so far requires an end to the fight, the Ukraine would have a capitulation. Kyiv and the Europeans reject them.
But it is also clear that the sanctions of the West burden the Russian economy. Despite a high -driven war economy, there is a risk of recession, there are many problems with quickly shrinking reserves. The continuation of the fighting is becoming increasingly expensive for Russia – not least because the hundreds of thousands of volunteers who go to war due to the high salaries are increasingly missing.
The independent Russian political scientist Tatjana Stanowaja sees chances at the summit. Trump himself had to understand that Russia had a military advantage and that Putin sanctions were probably not impressed. “In my opinion, this is the first or less realistic attempt to end the war,” she says. “At the same time, I am extremely skeptical about the implementation of the agreements, even if there is an armistice for a certain time.”
