The historian and Eastern Europe expert Karl Schlögel recently warned of a “pre-war situation”, similar to the First World War. What is your assessment?
The situation is tense, yes. It is only a matter of time before China wants to reincorporate Taiwan by force. Then the situation becomes highly explosive; China is a different opponent than Russia. However, I am skeptical about such comparisons. Because such assessments can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. What the future will bring us is the result of our actions in the present. It would now be important that we learn lessons from the mistakes of the past.
Have we done that? The writer Marko Martin recently criticized Frank-Walter Steinmeier in a speech at Bellevue Palace for his Russia policy as a former Federal Foreign Minister. The Federal President’s reaction caused a scandal.
Germany’s long-standing Russia policy – especially under Steinmeier – was characterized by blatantly false assumptions, wrong decisions and economic interests. Of course, politicians can make mistakes. But that can’t mean that you exculpate yourself afterwards with thin words – and undermine necessary debates by retrospectively ennobling your own bubble with state honors.
Steinmeier refers to the “state of knowledge at the time” regarding the direction of his Russia policy.
Let’s not kid ourselves. Germany has been pursuing its appeasement policy towards Russia since 2015 at the latest. Let’s take the Nord Stream pipeline project: The Americans have always warned about it, as have the Balts, the Poles and others. There is a difference between making a political mistake that you can only recognize afterwards and making it with your eyes on it.
Would it harm politicians if they admitted mistakes more often to citizens?
On the contrary. Nobody is perfect. A healthy error culture is important. There’s a lot going wrong at the moment, elected politicians are refusing to accept criticism from people who supposedly have no idea. But who is the sovereign in this country? It is the citizens, the people. What also bothered me about the whole story surrounding Marko Martin’s speech was the fact that Steinmeier apparently accused him of Martin being a guest at Bellevue Palace.
Strictly speaking, Steinmeier is a guest at Bellevue Palace.
Even. Does the Federal President consider himself a monarch? Very strange. In this respect, Martin’s speech was urgently needed for this reason too.
What is now necessary for the West to meet the challenge of the new East-West conflict?
The West needs strength from outside and strength from within – and that comes from what is known in English as “the better story”. The West needs a better story like this in order to agree internally on what defines it and what is worth defending. Democratic politics must be able to convey realistically and credibly that it enables people to have a better future. Then the idea of the liberal West can again develop traction and appeal worldwide.
Even with the United States becoming weaker?
It is not the USA that has become weaker, but the West as a whole. Under Putin, Russia has massively armed itself militarily, particularly since 2012, while China has experienced unprecedented economic development in the early 21st century. We have to resist it. The social model of the open civil society in the wake of the Enlightenment has given our societies the highest level of freedom and prosperity that we have ever had historically. That’s a legacy that can be built on.
Ukraine is the battlefield of the new East-West conflict. Would a so-called Finnishization of the country as a neutral state be a solution, as Olaf Scholz at least suggested?
If Finlandization is meant to mean Ukraine’s unaffiliated neutrality, then that would be the most fatal mistake imaginable: it would be a continuation of the Bucharest NATO summit in 2008, at which Ukraine was promised NATO membership, but no concrete step was agreed upon. This has exposed Ukraine in the gray area where Putin has invaded it.
The linchpin of any peace solution – regardless of what it looks like in terms of territory and specific details – must be reliable guarantees for the existence of the state and the security of Ukraine. The specific design is a matter of diplomacy, the technical importance of which should not be underestimated. What is crucial first, however, is this clear political objective, without which the West would lose the basis of its credibility.
Professor Rödder, thank you very much for the interview.
